MTS 王立天(Fred)的部落格

各位股友們可以參考參考                     

萬一成真，

不只是股票遭殃而已。

宜隨時密切追蹤之。

第二則新聞則告訴我們說：

1. 當真正發生某種危機時，政府一定不會說老實話。
   它一定會大事化小，小事化無，來個抵死不認。
2. 然後等到木已成舟，大家都知道狀況之後，
   為了避免被民眾戴上「說謊欺瞞」的帽子，
   政府高層一定會補充說明真實的狀況
   （就像這則新聞一樣，「我們經歷了一次
   慘烈的衰退」），表示他們有掌握到實際的狀況
   （至於有沒有應對策略則完全是另外一回事。
   這則新聞同樣也犯了這個毛病：
   政府我們知道狀況，但是完全不提是否有辦法
   改善或解決。）

長期投資者應該要等

道瓊到5000點時才進場

Charles Nenner: "Long-Term Investors

Should Wait Until Dow Hits 5,000"

n 查禮士‧耐拿身為高盛銀行10年資歷的
分析師說：經濟預計要到2020年才會真正的復甦。

n 但他也不認為市場會立即發生崩跌。
這幾年將很難在市場上賺到錢。

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/15/2010 12:49 -0500

Charles Nenner, who prior to founding the Charles Nenner Research Institute served as a technical analyst for Goldman for about 10 years, has been looking at charts and not seeing much to write home about. In his interview with the TechTicker, Nenner says "I expect the bear market rally to continue for 4 more years, with big upswings like in Japan before coming down again. I don't expect the market to totally fall out of bed. It is going to be very difficult few years to make some money. We will test the lows of 2009 to be tested over the next couple of years. I don't expect the economy to pick up until 2020." How charts can give him macroeconomic perspective with a 10 year bogey, we are not too sure. As to trading, he believes that as long as the S&P does not close below 1,085, the market will continue bouncing, and if 1,085 is taken out "it should be all over." For longer-term investors, Nenner suggests to wait until the Dow goes below its trendline average, with a Dow target of around 5,000. Of course, whether Brian Sack will allow stocks to drop that low is a different matter altogether.

原文（全）連結：

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charles-nenner-long-term-investors-should-wait-until-dow-hits-5000

巴菲特警告歐巴馬

美國經濟只回升了一半

Buffett warns Obama U.S. economy only halfway back

Reuters – Warren E. Buffett ,Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway, testifies before the Financial …  

n 歐巴馬在上週NBC新聞受訪時表示，
他的顧問巴菲特跟他說（完全一字不漏地）：
「我們經歷了非常慘淡的經濟衰退，
而且尚未完全復甦。
大概只恢復了40～50%左右。
我們仍然有很長的一段路要走。」

n 以目前房地產為例，根據歷史趨勢，
美國每年新建屋數平均都在一百二十萬戶左右，
但是現在整個建設業陷入停擺，
新建屋都成為庫存（空屋）。

Fri Jul 16, 6:18 am ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama heard a sobering message from Warren Buffett when he asked for the investment guru's views about the economic recovery, according to an interview Obama gave NBC News on Thursday.

"I'll tell you exactly what Warren Buffett said. He said, 'We went through a wrenching recession. And so we have not fully recovered. We're about 40, 50 percent back. But we've still got a long way to go'," Obama told NBC during a visit to Holland, Michigan, to promote his job creation policies.

Obama chatted with Buffett in the Oval office on Wednesday as he sought ideas on how to translate higher U.S. growth into stronger hiring. This would help him deliver on an election year promise to tackle unemployment currently at 9.5 percent.

Buffett, who built an estimated $47 billion fortune running his insurance and investment company Berkshire Hathaway Inc, warned Obama the recession created a huge overhang of excess capacity in the economy that would simply take time to mop up.

Obama said Buffett specifically used the example of the U.S. housing market, noting 1.2 million new homes were built on average per year in the United States, according to historic trends. That number soared above 2 million during the property bubble, but construction activity has since collapsed.

"What Warren pointed out was, look, we're gonna get back to 1.2 (million). But right now we're soaking up a whole bunch of inventory. So a lot of -- the challenge is to work our way through this recession," Obama said.

High unemployment is another type of excess economic capacity. Obama's Democrats risk severe punishment by voters in midterm congressional elections on November 2 if he fails to convince them stronger U.S. growth means better times ahead.

原文（全）連結：

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100716/ts_nm/us_obama_buffett