連紙鈔的最大通路「銀行們」                  NEW9.gif

都在開始研究惡性通膨發生時

的社會結構與現象,

就表示「事情越來越明顯化」了。

 

請你以銀行家的角度來想想看,

當民眾唾棄紙鈔之後,

銀行怎麼活?如何獲利?

如何繼續剝削死老百姓?

到時候,

沒有人要儲蓄,

房貸繳不起,

ATM失去效用,

支、匯票失去功能,

存摺上的數字失去意義

(辛巴威70億只能買到三個雞蛋,

請問你現在存摺上的數字能買到什麼呢?

前天Fred到銀行辦事,行員竟然問我說:

「先生想不想要把這些錢拿來定存?」

我確定她一定不是Fred的格友)

銀行怎麼辦?

屆時你又怎麼辦?!

 

紙鈔的死亡

The Death of Paper Money

n 各銀行開始搜刮各種關於
德國威瑪政權超通膨的研究。

n 研究報告指出:當年一些猶太人為了
搞垮德國的經濟,而促使惡性通膨的發生。

n 日本經濟「消失的十年」是經濟蕭條的借鏡,
也是初期的症狀。

n 到時候「金錢的速度」將會是各國、
各銀行之間決勝的關鍵。


As they prepare for holiday reading in Tuscany,

City bankers are buying up rare copies of

an obscure book on the mechanics of Weimar

inflation published in 1974.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard    Published: 7:05PM BST 25 Jul 2010

P1.JPG  

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, himself a scholar of the Great Depression, has indicated he would consider extra stimulus for the economy.

 

During the inflationary crisis of Weimer Germany, grand pianos became a currency of sorts, according to an account of the period.

Ebay is offering a well-thumbed volume of "Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations" at a starting bid of $699 (shipping free.. thanks a lot).

The crucial passage comes in Chapter 17 entitled "Velocity". Each big inflation -- whether the early 1920s in Germany, or the Korean and Vietnam wars in the US -- starts with a passive expansion of the quantity money. This sits inert for a surprisingly long time. Asset prices may go up, but latent price inflation is disguised. The effect is much like lighter fuel on a camp fire before the match is struck.

People’s willingness to hold money can change suddenly for a "psychological and spontaneous reason" , causing a spike in the velocity of money. It can occur at lightning speed, over a few weeks. The shift invariably catches economists by surprise. They wait too long to drain the excess money.

"Velocity took an almost right-angle turn upward in the summer of 1922," said Mr O Parsson. Reichsbank officials were baffled. They could not fathom why the German people had started to behave differently almost two years after the bank had already boosted the money supply. He contends that public patience snapped abruptly once people lost trust and began to "smell a government rat".

Some might smile at the Bank of England "surprise" at the recent the jump in Brtiish inflation. Across the Atlantic, Fed critics say the rise in the US monetary base from $871bn to $2,024bn in just two years is an incendiary pyre that will ignite as soon as US money velocity returns to normal.

Morgan Stanley expects bond carnage as this catches up with the Fed, predicting that yields on US Treasuries will rocket to 5.5pc. This has not happened so far. 10-year yields have fallen below 3pc, and M2 velocity has remained at historic lows of 1.72.

As a signed-up member of the deflation camp, I think the Bank and the Fed are right to keep their nerve and delay the withdrawal of stimulus -- though that case is easier to make in the US where core inflation has dropped to the lowest since the mid 1960s. But fact that O Parsson’s book is suddenly in demand in elite banking circles is itself a sign of the sort of behavioral change that can become self-fulfilling.

As it happens, another book from the 1970s entitled "When Money Dies: the Nightmare of The Weimar Hyper-Inflation" has just been reprinted. Written by former Tory MEP Adam Fergusson -- endorsed by Warren Buffett as a must-read -- it is a vivid account drawn from the diaries of those who lived through the turmoil in Germany, Austria, and Hungary as the empires were broken up.

Near civil war between town and country was a pervasive feature of this break-down in social order. Large mobs of half-starved and vindictive townsmen descended on villages to seize food from farmers accused of hoarding. The diary of one young woman described the scene at her cousin’s farm.

"In the cart I saw three slaughtered pigs. The cowshed was drenched in blood. One cow had been slaughtered where it stood and the meat torn from its bones. The monsters had slit the udder of the finest milch cow, so that she had to be put out of her misery immediately. In the granary, a rag soaked with petrol was still smouldering to show what these beasts had intended," she wrote.

Grand pianos became a currency or sorts as pauperized members of the civil service elites traded the symbols of their old status for a sack of potatoes and a side of bacon. There is a harrowing moment when each middle-class families first starts to undertand that its gilt-edged securities and War Loan will never recover. Irreversible ruin lies ahead. Elderly couples gassed themselves in their apartments.

Foreigners with dollars, pounds, Swiss francs, or Czech crowns lived in opulence. They were hated. "Times made us cynical. Everybody saw an enemy in everybody else," said Erna von Pustau, daughter of a Hamburg fish merchant.

Great numbers of people failed to see it coming. "My relations and friends were stupid. They didn’t understand what inflation meant. Our solicitors were no better. My mother’s bank manager gave her appalling advice," said one well-connected woman.

"You used to see the appearance of their flats gradually changing. One remembered where there used to be a picture or a carpet, or a secretaire. Eventually their rooms would be almost empty. Some of them begged -- not in the streets -- but by making casual visits. One knew too well what they had come for."

Corruption became rampant. People were stripped of their coat and shoes at knife-point on the street. The winners were those who -- by luck or design -- had borrowed heavily from banks to buy hard assets, or industrial conglomerates that had issued debentures. There was a great transfer of wealth from saver to debtor, though the Reichstag later passed a law linking old contracts to the gold price. Creditors clawed back something.

A conspiracy theory took root that the inflation was a Jewish plot to ruin Germany. The currency became known as "Judefetzen" (Jew- confetti), hinting at the chain of events that would lead to Kristallnacht a decade later.

While the Weimar tale is a timeless study of social disintegration, it cannot shed much light on events today. The final trigger for the 1923 collapse was the French occupation of the Ruhr, which ripped a great chunk out of German industry and set off mass resistance.

Lloyd George suspected that the French were trying to precipitate the disintegration of Germany by sponsoring a break-away Rhineland state (as indeed they were). For a brief moment rebels set up a separatist government in Dusseldorf. With poetic justice, the crisis recoiled against Paris and destroyed the franc.

The Carthaginian peace of Versailles had by then poisoned everything. It was a patriotic duty not to pay taxes that would be sequestered for reparation payments to the enemy. Influenced by the Bolsheviks, Germany had become a Communist cauldron. partakists tried to take Berlin. Worker `soviets' proliferated. Dockers and shipworkers occupied police stations and set up barricades in Hamburg. Communist Red Centuries fought deadly street battles with right-wing militia.

Nostalgics plotted the restoration of Bavaria’s Wittelsbach monarchy and the old currency, the gold-backed thaler. The Bremen Senate issued its own notes tied to gold. Others issued currencies linked to the price of rye.

This is not a picture of America, or Britain, or Europe in 2010. But we should be careful of embracing the opposite and overly-reassuring assumption that this is a mild replay of Japan’s Lost Decade, that is to say a slow and largely benign slide into deflation as debt deleveraging exerts its discipline.

Japan was the world’s biggest external creditor when the Nikkei bubble burst twenty years ago. It had a private savings rate of 15pc of GDP. The Japanese people have gradually cut this rate to 2pc, cushioning the effects of the long slump. The Anglo-Saxons have no such cushion.

There is a clear temptation for the West to extricate itself from the errors of the Greenspan asset bubble, the Brown credit bubble, and the EMU sovereign bubble by stealth default through inflation. But that is a danger for later years. First we have the deflation shock of lives. Then -- and only then -- will central banks go to far and risk losing control over their printing experiment as velocity takes off. One problem at a time please.

原文(全)連結:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7909432/The-Death-of-Paper-Money.html

FrederickWang 發表在 痞客邦 PIXNET 留言(6) 人氣()


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  • 小康家庭
  • 我們會先超通縮再超通膨嗎?上面的文章銀行研究超通膨,右邊的噗浪說會進入喜通縮?我已經有些混亂了。
  • 安姐
  • 麥可馬隆尼書中有提過

    他們預測會先通縮->嚴重通膨->嚴重通縮->超通膨

    Fred能再說一下想建造方舟除了金銀還有哪些東西嗎

    感謝你
  • 如有雷同 純屬巧合
  • 匯票是在金銀本位時代被發明的  見票即付

    大西洋沿岸與地中海沿岸之間隔著阿爾卑斯山 商人用金匠發的收據goldsmith note代替真金銀幣來作買賣

    江南長江三角洲(出超/生產)與西北長城駐軍(入超/消費)間用錢莊票號發的銀票代替白銀元寶
  • nervlee
  • 昨天看到工商時報報導巴菲特的波克夏,減少美債劵長天期的部位達8.57% , 表示美債浮濫的問題,已經非常明顯,
  • 廈庭
  • 現在是通縮還是通膨,我想與其在這裡想,不如實際到台北市的每個商圈走一遭,應該很容易知道答案了,Fred不是有說過盡信書不如無書嗎。

    Fred的噗浪上面有說過,完整的財務方舟包括:1實體貴金屬,2可供出租的住宅(不是商辦喔),3高配息的藍籌股(高配股不行喔),4穩健經營的企業,以上的項目最好能夠跨國投資。

    不過我覺得最重要的還是增加自己的財務智商,保持身體健康,行車要注意安全,做人態度謙虛,多向人才請教,才是最好的方舟,因為現在就算上面的資產現在一樣都沒有,將來才有可能憑著自己的能力創造這樣才最好啊。

    雖然最近這一年老是接到銀行的電話,都是打來問需不需要貸款和信用卡,或是協助卡債清償等等的電話,不過卻又在電視上和路上的十字路口,老是有廣告放送高利率活存和外幣高利率定存的廣告,而且還不用搭配亂七八糟的金融商品,仔細想一想,會不會和政府保障存款的期限只到今年年底有關係呢。
  • sharewilliam


  • 沒有基礎的造船技術擁有一百種方舟藍圖都是沒用的
    這是羅伯特強調的,沒有財務智商教育
    你買股票可以賠錢,同樣的買房地產買黃金白銀也是可以賠錢
    請自己動動腦筋思考,不要總是要求別人給答案