「真正」的經濟正在衰亡:第四季將會很慘烈

The "Real" Economy Is Dying: Q4 "Going to Be a Bloodbath,"  

Whalen Says Posted Oct 05, 2009 01:49pm EDT by Aaron Task

 

 中文翻譯可以聽我的線上語音口譯:

 
   

Stocks rallied to start the week thanks to a better-than-expected ISM services sector report and a Goldman Sachs upgrade of big banks, including Wells Fargo, Comerica and Capital One.

But all is not right in either the economy or the banking sector, according to Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics. In fact, Whalen says most observers are drawing the wrong economic conclusions from the stock market's robust rally.

"Why is liquidity going into the financial sector? It's because the real economy is dying [and] everyone is fleeing into the stocks and bonds because they're liquid at the moment," Whalen says. "That's not a good sign."

The banking sector's assets shrunk by about $300 billion per quarter in the first half of 2009, a sign of banks hoarding cash in anticipation of additional future losses, according to Whalen. "The real economy is shrinking because of a lack of credit."

The shrinkage will continue into 2010, Whalen predicts, suggesting the banking sector hasn't yet seen the peak in loan losses. Institutional Risk Analytics forecasts the FDIC will ultimately need $300 billion to $400 billion to recoup losses to its bank insurance fund. (In other words, the $45 billion the FDIC sought to raise last week by asking banks to prepay fees is just a drop in the bucket.)

"Investors should think about this because the fourth quarter in the banking industry is going to be a bloodbath," says Whalen, who believes smaller and regional banks like Hudson City Bancorp may come into favor vs. larger peers, which have dramatically outperformed since the March lows.

"When you see the markets rallying when the real economy is shrinking that tells you this [recovery] is not going to be very enduring," Whalen says.

In this regard, Whalen finds himself in philosophical agreement with Nouriel Roubini, George Soros and Meredith Whitney, among other "prophets of the apocalypse" who've once again been raising red flags in recent days.

連結:http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/348944/The-%22Real%22-Economy-Is-Dying-Q4-%22Going-to-Be-a-Bloodbath%22-Whalen-Says

 中文翻譯可以聽我的語音口譯:

 
   

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  • 欣怡
  • Thanks for teacher's sharing with the information, thank you!!

    Dear teacher,

    Very thanks for your sharing with the information, it helps me a lot, thank you!! i will try to get my stocks back as soon as possible to protect my property.

    hsingyi 欣怡
  • 小鄭
  • Thank you so much

    Oh my God. It's really an important news. We have to prepare for the real shock immediately. Thanks for telling us this information.
    Sincerely yours,
  • 志安 Ronald
  • 很棒的資訊,謝謝
  • mandy
  • 真誠地說聲謝謝你

    戰戰兢兢的一年 感謝王大哥指引著我 讓我老時過得安穩 我的朋友認為我杞人憂天 諸不知真懂的人 是有福報的 該做的趕快做 做好安全水位 生活步調一樣
    但心中踏實很多 風暴來時 穩若磐石
    還有阿費 謝謝妳


  • 魏漢陽
  • 回應

    立天真不簡單 網路聲音真實度還不錯 我想應該是檔案壓縮的關係吧
    這兩年我修了北藝大碩士課程 規定拿到學位之前必須英檢通過 只好重
    拾書本 一個學期下來自覺聽力似乎有一點進步 英語這東西的確是必須
    常常接觸運用 否則真是會全盤還給老師的…
    那天看到方老神態似乎輕盈許多 聽她說祇有眼睛視力不見改善 我想你
    們兄弟可能要想一點辦法不管吃藥或者物理療法 至少不能惡化 
    閱讀書本文章方面 也要注意眼睛的休養 …老人家的健康 是兒孫的福氣
    前幾天我在畫展碰到潘有光  他經常畫畫寫生  精神氣色依然如昔 很是
    羨慕和歡喜 希望有空就戴著方老到郊外走走吧。 請問候大家好
  • 感謝魏哥的提醒,我們兄弟會注意。您也保重!

    FrederickWang 於 2009/10/12 01:01 回覆

  • Tom
  • HI 王老師 我是晧瑜

    以後會常上來聽課的
    push~~~
  • 記得替老師跟大家說喔!
    你自己進場投資了嗎?

    FrederickWang 於 2009/10/12 01:02 回覆

  • FrederickWang
  • 對於搞不清楚Fred到底在說什麼的新朋友,我會推出一系列的迷你講座,無非是希望能正確傳達羅伯特‧清崎正在傳布的訊息(台灣資訊真的有些「時差」)。敬請舊雨新知拭目以待!!
  • Cheloan
  • 老師您說的觀點我在『貨幣戰爭』這本書中都略有提到,原本我看這本書越看越想睡,但是在上過老師的財富救生筏後,知道整體金錢的由來後,那本書也頓時變有趣了~~
  • 王立天
  • 很多人都不清楚現代的「錢」是怎麼來的,因此終日忙碌而越忙越窮(就算「鈔票」變多,有時候「窮」也可以用在精神上或感情上的貧乏),上過「財富救生筏」的你,在加上「投資基本功」,就應該知道如何對抗你財務上的大敵:債務、通貨膨脹、稅賦、與退休金(沒錯,你的退休金是致富的大阻礙)。
    ★羅伯特‧清崎宣導人們要儘速打造自己的財富「方舟」來度過2011真正的金融海嘯,由於Fred的課程只專精於一個領域,所以只敢稱為「救生筏」,不敢僭越,特此說明。
  • FrederickWang
  • 小鄭真棒!
    Fred當初的想法就是「教人釣魚」,而不是「給人魚吃」。
    恭喜你!看樣子你也學會如何分辨財務資訊的優劣,
    這可是投資致富最重要的基本功。

    可否給點建議?下次將主要標題翻成中文,
    來幫助更多朋友一起「學會釣魚」!
    不然真的可惜了這麼好的分享。謝謝!
  • 小茜
  • 無法收聽耶!

    這篇文章的中文翻譯因為顯示載入歌單失敗,完全無法收聽,很苦惱耶!因為英文不好,可以請老師協助處理嗎?另外,聽說羅勃特明年2010年2月會來台灣授課,是真的嗎?
  • 感謝您的提醒,已於11/24 15:00 重新上載錄音檔

    FrederickWang 於 2009/11/24 15:01 回覆

  • 路人甲
  • 自己製造工具,才能掌握核心技術

    最好能自己製造釣魚竿,魚網,魚餌.
    外加能自己賣魚與烹調魚就更好.