更新日期:2010/08/17 03:04 沈婉玉／台北報導
'Gold price to cross $4,000/oz'
Published on: August 03, 2010 at 22:00
"We're not going into a double dip. We're going into a
depression. I'm convinced of that," claims renowned Market Forecaster Ian
Gordon. Using his sharpest tools, Gordon has determined that the biggest market
crash in our lifetime is coming sooner than most expect. But he is using a
three-pronged strategy to limit the damage and even make money in the dark
times ahead. You will learn why Gordon believes gold, and gold equities in
particular, will perform when nothing else does in this exclusive interview
with The Gold Report.
The Gold Report: Today we are talking with Ian Gordon, president of Longwave Analytics. Your market analysis model, known as the Longwave Principle, is a modified version of the Kondratieff cycle. Could you give us an overview of how it works?
Ian Gordon: I think that I've actually embellished it quite a lot. I've done far more than I think Kondratieff ever envisioned. For instance, breaking the cycle into four seasons—I don't think that's original. But I think those season breaks are very appropriate.
Spring is the birth or rebirth of the economy. Summer is the time when the economy reaches fruition. Autumn is a period where everyone feels very good because it's always the season where you have the biggest bull market in stocks, bonds and real estate. Winter is the period when debt is washed out of the system so that it can start refreshed again in the spring. The cycle lasts a lifetime of about 60 or 70 years. I call it a lifetime cycle, because we live only one cycle in a meaningful way. For that reason, it is also very difficult for anyone to recognize where we are in the cycle because we haven't lived in that period before.
TGR: And that model says we are in the winter of that cycle.
IG: Yes, we're in winter. The indication of the season change from autumn to winter is the bull stock market peak. We say that peak was effectively reached in 2000, not 2007, because NASDAQ obtained the real speculative peak in the market in March 2000. When that peak is reached, as it was in September 1929, it signals the onset of winter and the deflation/ depression stage of the cycle. That whole winter period is really where debt is expunged from the economy and that process is extremely difficult for creditors and debtors alike.
The last depression, for instance, following the 1929 stock market peak, brought the entire U.S. banking system to its knees. In fact, between 1929 and 1933 about 10,000 banks failed. That kind of process is bullish for gold because people move to gold as money of last resort. It's the money that they ultimately place their full trust in. They move away from paper as a monetary medium.
TGR: And this is what you believe will push gold to $4,000 an ounce?
IG: That's why we're saying $4,000 per ounce gold, but that's a number that we've been predicting for about two years. About eight years ago we were predicting $2,000. But we think the sort of calamity that we're anticipating here is going to make the rush to gold quite dramatic. We're not even sure $4,000 will be the high. It could be something significantly greater than that.
TGR: Could we see another 10,000 banks close?
IG: I think there are only 8,000 banks in the U.S., but you could see a significant number of the banks fail. We have a major debt crisis worldwide right now. Who are the biggest creditors? The creditors are the banks, so as debt comes out, many of those banks are going to be in dire straits. We haven't really seen what's been happening to the banking system with regards to commercial real estate. We've certainly seen what's happening with regards to consumer real estate. But on the commercial real estate side, the banks are shielding themselves from obviously very difficult times in that area.
TGR: In addition to $4,000 gold, you're predicting that the DJIA is going to fall to 1,000. It's about 10,500 now. That would have gold trading at four times the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow). How would you respond to people who might ask, "Ian, have you gone mad?"
IG: Well, I think a lot of people think I am mad. But so far everything that we've anticipated through our understanding of this cycle has come to pass. We know how desperate the winter of the Kondratieff season is because that process of debt unwinding is very, very painful. In the last depression, 25% of the American work force was unemployed. You had a massive drop in GDP in the United States; the economy basically collapsed by 45%. If that were to happen today, you would go from a $14 trillion dollar economy to about an $8 trillion dollar economy. That means that things are desperate. Major institutions are going bankrupt. People are going bankrupt because they've taken on too much debt and it's pushing the banks into bankruptcy as well.
TGR: So we are going to see the first signs of this at an institutional level?
IG: I remember going to Japan to speak on the cycle about seven years ago. I was ferried around Tokyo by a man in this chauffeur-driven Jaguar. This gentleman was very interested in investing in gold. He was talking and pointing to these big skyscrapers and he said: "See this building? Owner bankrupt. Bank bankrupt." That was a big lesson for me. We're going to have the same kind of experience here in North America because the people who put those buildings up have borrowed heavily from the banks. They're going to go under and the banks are going to be in dire straits as a result of lending them all that money.
TGR: What's the timeframe for all of this?
IG: It's already happening. I mean the debt bubble is unwinding worldwide. I think the next leg down restarts in earnest when it becomes apparent that North America's not immune to the banking crisis. We've already had the initial banking crisis here in North America; the Brits have had their banking crisis, and so on. But I think the next leg down will be some big bank in trouble in the United States. Then people will start to panic and move to gold. With that, the stock market will come down quite dramatically because the economy won't be recovering. We're not going into a double dip. We're going into a depression. I'm convinced of that.
TGR: Is there enough gold to go around?
IG: We don't actually produce very much gold every year. We only produce about 80 million ounces from the mines. You've got a lot of people who are going to return to gold because that's the monetary medium that they really trust. Eighty million ounces a year isn't going to go a long way to satisfy the demand that I see happening.
TGR: But gold stocks went down along with everything else when we had the massive correction in 2008. If we get to $4,000 gold and a 1,000 DJIA, won't everything be pretty much wiped out?
IG: We know what happened to the gold stocks following the 1929 peak. In the initial October 1929 crash, the gold stocks crashed alongside the general stock market. We had a rally back into April 1930 and the gold stocks came back in that rally. Then after April 1930, it was almost straight down for the Dow, yet the gold stocks continued to rise. The price of gold was fixed until January 1934 at $20.67, yet the gold stocks continued to go up.
For instance, Homestake Mining's price more than doubled between that drop in 1929 until early 1934, when the price of gold increased from $20 to $35 an ounce. So it doubled in the face of the Dow dropping quite dramatically. In fact, between 1929 and 1936, Homestake's price actually increased by six times its value. We see a similar thing happening this time. I mean at $4,000 gold, gold stocks are going to be worth a lot of money. Let's say they're producing gold at a cash cost of production of $500. At today's gold price per ounce they're making $600 or $650 an ounce in profit. If you go to $4,000, they're making $3,500.
TGR: But won't there be anarchy on the streets?IG: Well, I think there's going to be major civil unrest. You're starting to see a little bit of that manifesting itself in the form of these Tea Party groups that are in the United States. But when you start to see 25% unemployment and a Dow that's basically as worthless as it was in 1932, I think people are going to be pretty angry.
TGR: In your last conversation with The Gold Report, you talked about this happening perhaps as quickly as 2012.
IG: The reason I picked 2012 as a bottom is because I was using anniversary dates because I'm a huge fan of W.D. Gann and that's kind of the work that he would've done. There are lots of anniversaries associated with 2012. . .It's the 80-year anniversary in 2012 of the 1932 bottom when the Dow was at 41 points. And 1982 was the bear market bottom that saw the beginnings of the big autumn bull market. Also, you've got an anniversary in 2002 when we had our first bear market bottom from that 2000 peak. There are so many anniversaries around that that I picked 2012, which would mean that you'd have to have a massive collapse starting almost immediately.
IG : It is very difficult for people to comprehend this because, first of all, stocks have risen in value since the 1932 bottom when the Dow hit 41. Every time we've had a bear market, stocks have always recovered pretty well from that bear market and gone up to new highs. We've been conditioned to believe that stocks are a lifetime investment. We've demonstrated through our work they're actually not a lifetime investment. They work in the spring of the season because of the rebirth in the economy. They work in the autumn because of the speculative period spins in real estate. That's the massive bull market and it always occurs in the autumn of the cycle. Similarly, we've also been conditioned to expect that every time the economy has a hiccup we'll recover from the recession and go on to bigger and better things. In effect, that has happened as well.
TGR: Why should we think that won't happen again?
IG: During the major 1980–1982 recession the U.S. was still a creditor nation. Her manufacturing base was much more significant than it is today. Her economy was probably 40% of the world economy. Now it's about 24% of the world's economy. This depression is something that we've never experienced. The recovery from these takes much, much longer because of all that debt that's being taken out of the system.
Beware the Dragon's gold teeth
China is putting itself in a position where
dominance of the gold market, of which
it is capable, could lead to it exerting
global financial hegemony.
Posted: Wednesday , 04 Aug 2010
Almost a year ago Mineweb published a short article referring to a report from China that state-controlled organisations - as virtually all entities are in China - had launched marketing efforts at persuading its citizens to buy gold and silver as an investment. This turned out to be the best read story ever published on Mineweb. Not surprisingly with such an article, which we have been assured by our Chinese contacts is correct, there have been those who have accused us of falling prey to pure promotional hype from the gold lobby and there has been no such programme. But the facts belie the doubters with Chinese gold purchases by investors rocketing last year and this.
Earlier this year you could also have read on Mineweb that the World Gold Council had entered an agreement with China's, and the world's, largest bank the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (state-owned of course) to co-operate to promote gold investments in China.
Yesterday we learnt that China is further loosening its controls on the import and export of gold on the one hand, and on the other that it is also going to support Chinese company investment in overseas gold mining projects.
Does anyone notice a pattern emerging here?
For long we have put forward the view on Mineweb that Eastern buying, and that from China in particular, will effectively put a floor under the gold price - and that floor seems to be rising continuously as seen in the gold price's stair step advances in recent months. A senior Chinese official has stated publicly that the country will buy gold on the dips so as not to disrupt the market and undermine the US dollar - and there is perhaps more than anecdotal evidence that the Chinese government is buying gold, effectively surreptitiously, for its reserves, but not disclosing this until it reckons it is opportune so to do. Last time it announced an increase in gold reserves it had in fact been accumulating the yellow metal for 6 years before it actually made the fact public.
But why should China hold back dissemination of this information? The Chinese know that an announcement that shows it has accumulated a further large gold holding will move the gold price sharply upwards. (Another reason why China has not bought any of the IMF gold.) A resultant gold price leap could well be seen globally as a devaluation of the dollar, leading to yet another nail in the greenback's coffin, and given the dollar-related element in China's huge currency reserve surplus, that could be seen as not being in China's best interest - at least for now.
There has also been considerable evidence that Chinese companies (all state-controlled) have been buying up western investments - in the resource sector in particular - at a phenomenal, and seemingly ever-growing, rate. Some would say this is an attempt to convert some of the nation's huge dollar currency surplus into hard assets, while at the same time helping secure future supply lines for the global industrial giant. Some of China's top economists have gone on record as saying that they have little confidence in the long term future of the dollar as the only real reserve currency, and replacing some of its dollar reserves in this manner is probably - certainly - government policy.
But what this does mean to the West in general, and to the U.S.A. in particular, is ‘don't screw with the Dragon'. It has golden teeth which can really cause financial damage to the status quo if it should so wish, and it is also gaining a position where it can dominate the supply of many militarily strategic metals and minerals, not just gold, should any other country try and resort to gunboat diplomacy! The time is perhaps not ripe - yet, but every move that China makes in the resource sector in general, and in gold and in some particularly strategic metals and minerals (think rare earths) could be interpreted as a long term plan to make China top dog in the global economy and, at the same time, make it secure from any nation which might want to try to prevent it reaching this position of global dominance by any means.
But in the meantime it is set on keeping its own 1.4 billion population happy - and subservient. The best way of doing this is by continuing internal growth, which in turn is needed to generate the demand to fuel its industrial engine. 8% GDP growth is a bad year for China. What would most of the West's industrialised nations give for a growth rate of half that today? Within this policy, persuading its new, and rapidly growing, middle classes to invest in gold, and then ensure the metal continues to rise gradually in price, thus maintain wealth aspirations, is one way of keeping a potentially troublesome element of society more than happy.
Now maybe I'm being too cynical in my analysis, but history also suggests that some nations are prepared to look very long term in their approach to global business and politics, and ultimate dominance in both - and the Chinese seem to fit this pattern well. On the other hand a capitalist democracy is less well suited to extended planning of this type as fortunes of political parties wax and wane and agendas are constantly shifting. The world order is changing. The U.S. cannot exert its current global financial control for ever.
AUGUST 4, 2010, 3:08 P.M. ET
Gold Threatens $1,200 on China, Fed Hopes
By MATT DAY
NEW YORK—Speculation about further easing of U.S. monetary policy and the chance of an increase in Chinese demand Wednesday pushed gold futures to their highest levels in almost three weeks.
The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, settled up $8.40, or 0.7%, at $1,195.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since July 15. Gold has advanced for six consecutive sessions, lifted first by bargain buying, when prices dipped to three-month lows, and recently by the likelihood of increased refuge demand if the economic recovery remains unsteady.
Gold was supported Wednesday by speculation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates or buy bonds to try to boost the economy, said Tom Pawlicki, precious-metals analyst with MF Global in Chicago. Even symbolic action by the Fed could send a signal that officials believe the economy is at risk of deflation or a renewed slowdown, enhancing the appeal of gold as an alternative asset.
Gold has found support in a weaker U.S. dollar and sluggish economic data.
Gold is sometimes bought as a hedge against a loss of purchasing power during weakness in other markets.
Futures also received continued support from the news that China would take steps to expand its domestic gold market. The People's Bank of China Tuesday announced that the government would permit more banks to export and import gold. Analysts say the easing of restrictions shouldn't immediately lead to an increase in gold investment, but it represents an expansion that could make China a larger player in the international gold market.
"I think the Chinese news is a longer-term underlying theme," said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist with Chicago-based Lind-Waldock. "If they're going to get more aggressive in letting people buy and sell more gold, it's a precursor to more moves from the central bank" in the gold market.
Gold futures trading was introduced to the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2008.
Comex silver futures fell for the first time in five sessions Wednesday. Most-active September silver settled down 14.4 cents, or 0.8%, at $18.278 an ounce.
Nymex platinum and palladium futures fell for a second consecutive day, as disappointing auto sales from Japan's two largest auto manufacturers weighed on the market. The metals' main industrial use is in automotive catalytic converters. October platinum settled down 90 cents, at $1,586.20 an ounce. September palladium slid $6.30, or 1.2%, to $500.15 an ounce.
China pushes for gold; India follows suit
Hot on China's heels, India's Central bank is mulling a proposal to allow banks to trade in gold. If cleared, the move will only strengthen the validity of the bull case for the metal.
Author: Shivom Seth
Posted: Monday , 09 Aug 2010
Hot on the heels of moves in China to expand the gold market in the country, several Indian bans have submitted a proposal to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank, to permit them to trade in gold in the domestic market and also hedge their requirements.
These banks hope to take advantage of the current bout of bargain-hunting taking place in the country as investors take advantage of lower prices.
At present, banks are only allowed to buy gold. India's central bank has permitted certain banks to import bullion on consignment basis for domestic jewellers and exporters but they do not stock gold. And, while a couple of the nominated banks authorised to import gold, sell gold coins at a premium of 10% to 15% over the market rate but, they are not permitted to buy back the gold they sell. Among their proposals, Indian banks have asked for permission to invest in gold exchange traded funds a move which is hoped will boost the trading of gold in demat and securitised forms.
Incidentally, banks and agencies such as the MMTC (Mines
and Metals Trading Corporation) account for nearly 80% of the country's gold
China's central bank has said that it will allow its banks to import and export more gold as part of a programme to push forward the development of the country's market in the precious metal. China is already one of the largest gold producers in the world and a leading consumer.
According to reports, China's central bank is also ruminating over allowing second-tier institutions such as the Minsheng Banking Corp and China Merchants Bank to team up with four major state banks, including Bank of China, to hedge bullion positions in the overseas markets.
In a bid to increase the competitiveness of its domestic financial markets and broaden investment channels for ordinary customers, China's central bank is also looking at allowing foreign suppliers to provide gold bullion directly to the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Analysts have reportedly pointed out that China is keen that more of its banks trade with overseas counterparts, in a move that will reduce their reliance on the Shanghai Gold Exchange for hedging.
At the exchange, trading volumes have risen by more than half during the first six months of this year. HSBC and Standard Chartered are among five banks that are members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
For the full year 2009, India managed to import just over 35 tonnes, far below the 400 tonnes the country imported in 2008. China's purchases in 2009, on the other hand, equalled 11% of global gold demand.
During the last quarter of 2009, however, demand for the precious metal increased 84% in India. The country already accounts for over 20% of the world's gold demand.
Similarly, in the first quarter of 2010, India was termed the strongest performing market by the World Gold Council, as total consumer demand surged 698% to 193.5 tonnes. Indian jewellery demand rose 291% to 147.5 tonnes during the same period, the Council said.
World Gold Council's investment managing director, Marcus Grubb, told reporters recently that the full-year gold demand in India was expected to be stronger than in 2009.
Some bankers have noted that one of the major reasons why gold imports to India have been plunging in recent months is because Indian banks hold a lot of carry-over gold stocks. ``Many consumers have stopped buying gold jewellery and are instead concentrating on imitation jewellery. Gold's high price in the last four months is another factor that has kept some of them away, leading to a further slump in imports,'' said an official with Mumbai-based Indian Bank, which is one of the 20 banks allowed to import gold. The bank's proposal in 2008, to launch gold bullion trading, was stymied due to the disapproval of the Central bank.
A Bombay Bullion Association report noted that gold imports have fallen this year, from 34 tonnes in January to 13.8 tonnes in June, with the trend broken only in April, when the country imported 34.2 tonnes. The spurt in April was to meet additional demand during the Akshya Trithiya festival, considered an auspicious occasion to buy gold.
An executive of the Punjab & Sind Bank said: ``Gold is a popular investment vehicle in India, as well as being a traditional option for gifts. There is a lot of demand. In the present scenario, gold provides an excellent hedge against inflation, a source of liquidity and a form of savings as well,'' the executive, who declined to be named, pointed out. The bank is also awaiting clearance from the RBI, and is eager to trade in gold.
It may be recalled that gold had stormed to record highs following news that India's central bank had bought 200 tonnes of the metal from the IMF in October last. The Indian purchase had ensured that the RBI became the world's 10th largest central-bank gold holder. It was the biggest single central-bank purchase in at least 30 years over such a short period, according to Timothy Green, author of The Ages of Gold.
``India did not buy that gold to sell it. It wanted to own it and keep it,'' said the head of global markets at IndusInd Bank, another bank permitted by the Reserve Bank of India to import gold. ``If banks are allowed to trade in gold, the move will only strengthen the validity of the bull case in gold,'' the official added.
Citing the example of China, the official said, in its bid to overtake India as the world's top consumer, Beijing has allowed more domestic banks to export and import bullion. China has reportedly increased its official gold holdings by more than 400 tonnes in the past few years to 1,054 tonnes.
``Beijing is keen to focus on bringing more gold into the country to satisfy domestic demand, but will not stir up global prices through official purchases,'' the banker added. Other than banks, a few nominated government agencies and premier trading houses have also been allowed to import gold. With more banks in India now eager to step up to the plate, trading in the yellow metal could soon be a possibility.
Tons of gold imports turn to
dust on arrival
Gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection
- VM Sathish
Published Sunday, August 15, 2010
Gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection. (FILE)
Several tons of gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection, resulting in millions of dirhams in losses and high levels of stress to the victims.
Speaking to Emirates 24|7, Mohamad Shakarchi,, Managing Director of Emirates Gold, said: "A lot of people in the UAE who tried to import gold at lower prices or through dubious overseas companies have been cheated.
We have inspected many consignments from African countries, especially Ghana, and found that there is not an ounce of gold in them.
For importing pure dust or other metals with yellow colour, these traders have paid several million dirhams.”
Dubai Customs sources confirmed the incidence of fake gold imports, but did not reply to a questionnaire sent by Emirates 24|7 ten days ago.
“The concerned official is on leave,” said a spokesman.
Emirates Gold has stopped examining gold imported from Africa. "We send specialists to examine a gold consignment only if it is routed through a local company.
We don’t have time to waste because most of these so called gold imports are fake. The traders got greedy. They thought they were getting gold at a discounted rate.”
Mohammed said that at least five tonnes of fake yellow metal is lying with Dubai Customs.
A tonne of gold will cost approximately $40 million. Merchants estimated that the minimum loss of fake gold imported by local traders is nothing less than $200 million.
He said many clients and Dubai Customs have requested the use of company’s expertise to verify the purity of gold. “The fake gold issue has affected many people. Some of the traders got heart attack, after our inspectors said there is no gold in the tonnes of imports brought from Africa,” Mohammed said.
Recent media reports suggested that several million dollars worth of gold with the Ethiopian Central Bank turned out to be fake. These bars of gold turned out to be gold plated steel bars
African gold merchants claim to be in possession of large quantities of gold dust or gold bars, which they offer to sell at below market prices.
The would-be buyer is made to send money for travel of the seller, for insurance, for shipping and for refinery assays before they would receive anything of any value. Investors are shown samples, which may be original gold.
But when the consignment reaches the port, it will be only mud or sand. Once Dubai Customs tightened controls, fake gold imports started reaching the UAE through other ports.
The seller can walk away at any point with virtually no risk of being caught as all contacts are via anonymous free webmail accounts accessed from Internet cafes and via prepaid mobile phones.
After the real estate and stock market investments became
dull, many local investors have turned to commodity, especially gold
investment, said the Chief
Executive Officer of JRG Commodities, Sajith Kumar PK.