最近黃金拉回,                               

嚇到一些信心不足的投機份子。

 

以下是一些有關於黃金正面的新聞

第一則是台新銀行理財部寄給Fred的電子郵件,

轉載部分內容給大家參考。

其中要留意的是:

只要是Fred的學員,

你們就知道要不要購買ETF這個衍生性金融產品。

 

台新銀行研究部

根據歷史經驗,國際金價每每在春末夏初的

第二季出現下跌修正,觀察自2001年至2010年以來,

黃金在上半年的第二季均有出現明顯的波段修正,

統計過去十次修正的平均跌幅約為10%

整體下跌期間平均約為54天。

由於20104月中旬時,發生歐洲債信危機,

造成歐元大幅貶值,以及避險需求增加,

成為推升金價持續走多的龐大助力。

然而,這也使得今年國際金價的修正走勢

較過去9年都要來得晚,直到625

國際金價才開始出現下跌。 

 

此外,國際金價往往在下半年的初期

就開始出現上漲行情。過去九年以來,

金價在第三季的七月和八月,至第四季的九到十月之間,

此波段上漲的平均漲幅約為12.4%

而黃金類股指數在同期間的漲幅更高達26.3%

這主要是因為印度在10月時,為慶祝傳統的排燈節慶,

以及11月的印度結婚旺季,都大幅增加對黃金飾品的需求。

因此每年9月時,印度的黃金進口量往往也大幅增加,

成為領先帶動金價在下半年走高的主要原因。

若就黃金的供需情形來看,2011年的黃金需求量

約達3900噸,超過可供給的3850噸產量。

全球央行的售金量也從2005年的663噸大幅降至

 2009年的41噸,未來幾年內,全球央行更可能持續

成為黃金的買進者。此外,歐洲債信危機的疑慮和

全球經濟復甦趨緩,也成為黃金ETF的投資需求成長的助力。

 

近來全球股市持續上揚,接近前波高點,

在股票比例較高的單筆部位,

建議出脫手中部分漲幅較高的市場

 

另外,我們建議積極的客戶可以買進黃金ETF

做為平衡股票市場的方式

 

目前線型上KD呈現黃金交叉的走勢(圖一藍色圓圈)

 MACD也即將出現黃金交叉的波段漲勢確立(圖一紫色圓圈)

但因黃金波動較大,建議買進部位不宜過高

(以下含有廣告的內容,故略)

 

 

任何股市投資老手都知道:

漲勢剛起若逢拉回都是買點。

果然專家也說$1200以下都是買點,

但是「恐已錯過最好的時機」。

 

所以缺乏清楚的進場動機,

沒有紮實的投資計畫,

投資股票或其他事物時,

就會難免面臨

「一開始不熟悉不敢買,

拉回錯過進場點不敢追,

咬牙買了價跌賠錢心裡難過,

但是上漲賺錢還會更難過」的窘境。

 

黃金開漲 專家:

 1200美元以下可進場

更新日期:2010/08/17 03:04 沈婉玉/台北報導

中國時報【沈婉玉/台北報導】

金價昨天衝上1220美元,自7月底金價達到近期最低點之後,

 黃金震盪回漲,漲幅超過5%。台銀貴金屬部副理楊天立指出,

金價漲勢已起,再加即將進入第四季傳統黃金需求旺季,

現在開始進場,恐已錯過最好的時機。

第三季傳統上是黃金交易淡季,市場投資需求轉淡,

楊天立指出,78月正是打底月份,728金價

每英兩1156.75美元是近期金價最低點,

投資者要掌握進場時機,逢低買進,建議1200美元以下

金價是相對低價,就可分批進場布局。

楊天立認為,此波黃金打底盤整期,金價跌幅卻很有限,

主要有兩大買盤,分階段支撐金價。

首先,基本面上有黃金實質需求,亞洲包括大陸、

 印度等國家的飾金買盤趁著第三季金價下跌之際,

逢低承接,提早進料,補足存貨,以供應第四季與

明年第一季的黃金需求,尤其7月底金價看低時,

亞洲買盤大量進貨,反而撐住金價。

其次,美國景氣復甦不如預期,將會持續實施量化

寬鬆政策,導致美元貶值、流動性增加,讓市場充滿

不安因子。在資金豐沛、各國利率維持低檔與中國、

印度出現通貨膨脹之下,多餘的資金選擇湧入第四季

漲勢看好的黃金,尤其是大量避險的買盤,

使金價很快開始回漲。

楊天立認為,現在金價開漲,行情剛開始發動,

有意投資黃金的人,不宜再等。雖然,已有一波

投資者獲利了結,逢低買進的最好機會已經過了,

但未來金價長線呈現多頭格局,現在進場還是有獲利的機會。

楊天立指出,黃金短線可能還是會來來回回,

過熱時將會修正,但往下則有支撐、長線看好。

目前國際機構預測,金價明年可能將達1400~1500美元,

保守估計至少會超過1300美元價位,他建議投資人,

可定時定額投資黃金撲滿,或逢低分批買進。

 

金價將會越過$4000美元的價位

'Gold price to cross $4,000/oz'

n 世界經濟即將進行第二波下跌,
並邁入經濟蕭條之中。

n 我們即將看到這輩子股市最大的跌幅。

n 股市有所謂的四季,而1990年至2000
就是秋季,最好的收穫季節。我認為經濟
的高峰是在
2000年而不是2007年,
因為那斯達克指數在
2000年創下歷史新高。
當年股市也在
1929年到達高峰,
但是要到
1933年經濟大蕭條才開始。
在這四年間一共超過一萬家的銀行倒閉。
那時候人們才拼命將資金移轉到黃金,
資金最後的避風港,大眾所相信的錢。

n 雖然因此我們現在面臨了所謂的「康氏寒冬」
(Kondratieff winter),上次發生的時候,
美國有四分之一的人口失業,所以靠放貸為生
的銀行也會被拖累而相繼宣布破產。
目前美國只有八千多間銀行,
因此你會看到股市跌至一千點左右,
而且有為數非常眾多的銀行倒閉。

n 當年股市從1929一路下跌,
雖然
1932有反彈,但是最後還是崩跌不止。
可是黃金類股卻一直上漲,別忘了當年的
金價還被政府鎖定在每盎司
$20.67價位(不准漲),
可是金礦公司的股價卻翻了一倍。

n 股票絕對不是終身穩當的投資,
我想這幾個世代以來都證明了這一點。
由於多年來股市處於春、夏、秋三季,
尤其是因為由不動產撤出來的資金,
讓這次股市的秋天收穫比歷史上任何
一次都來的豐厚。
我們這次面臨的寒冬前所未見,
絕對與以往的經濟衰退完全不同。

Published on: August 03, 2010 at 22:00

"We're not going into a double dip. We're going into a depression. I'm convinced of that," claims renowned Market Forecaster Ian Gordon. Using his sharpest tools, Gordon has determined that the biggest market crash in our lifetime is coming sooner than most expect. But he is using a three-pronged strategy to limit the damage and even make money in the dark times ahead. You will learn why Gordon believes gold, and gold equities in particular, will perform when nothing else does in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report.

The Gold Report: Today we are talking with Ian Gordon, president of Longwave Analytics. Your market analysis model, known as the Longwave Principle, is a modified version of the Kondratieff cycle. Could you give us an overview of how it works?


Ian Gordon:
I think that I've actually embellished it quite a lot. I've done far more than I think Kondratieff ever envisioned. For instance, breaking the cycle into four seasons—I don't think that's original. But I think those season breaks are very appropriate.

Spring is the birth or rebirth of the economy. Summer is the time when the economy reaches fruition. Autumn is a period where everyone feels very good because it's always the season where you have the biggest bull market in stocks, bonds and real estate. Winter is the period when debt is washed out of the system so that it can start refreshed again in the spring. The cycle lasts a lifetime of about 60 or 70 years. I call it a lifetime cycle, because we live only one cycle in a meaningful way. For that reason, it is also very difficult for anyone to recognize where we are in the cycle because we haven't lived in that period before.


TGR: And that model says we are in the winter of that cycle.


IG:
Yes, we're in winter. The indication of the season change from autumn to winter is the bull stock market peak. We say that peak was effectively reached in 2000, not 2007, because NASDAQ obtained the real speculative peak in the market in March 2000. When that peak is reached, as it was in September 1929, it signals the onset of winter and the deflation/ depression stage of the cycle. That whole winter period is really where debt is expunged from the economy and that process is extremely difficult for creditors and debtors alike.

The last depression, for instance, following the 1929 stock market peak, brought the entire U.S. banking system to its knees. In fact, between 1929 and 1933 about 10,000 banks failed. That kind of process is bullish for gold because people move to gold as money of last resort. It's the money that they ultimately place their full trust in. They move away from paper as a monetary medium.


TGR: And this is what you believe will push gold to $4,000 an ounce?


IG:
That's why we're saying $4,000 per ounce gold, but that's a number that we've been predicting for about two years. About eight years ago we were predicting $2,000. But we think the sort of calamity that we're anticipating here is going to make the rush to gold quite dramatic. We're not even sure $4,000 will be the high. It could be something significantly greater than that.

TGR: Could we see another 10,000 banks close?


IG:
I think there are only 8,000 banks in the U.S., but you could see a significant number of the banks fail. We have a major debt crisis worldwide right now. Who are the biggest creditors? The creditors are the banks, so as debt comes out, many of those banks are going to be in dire straits. We haven't really seen what's been happening to the banking system with regards to commercial real estate. We've certainly seen what's happening with regards to consumer real estate. But on the commercial real estate side, the banks are shielding themselves from obviously very difficult times in that area.

TGR: In addition to $4,000 gold, you're predicting that the DJIA is going to fall to 1,000. It's about 10,500 now. That would have gold trading at four times the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow). How would you respond to people who might ask, "Ian, have you gone mad?"


IG:
Well, I think a lot of people think I am mad. But so far everything that we've anticipated through our understanding of this cycle has come to pass. We know how desperate the winter of the Kondratieff season is because that process of debt unwinding is very, very painful. In the last depression, 25% of the American work force was unemployed. You had a massive drop in GDP in the United States; the economy basically collapsed by 45%. If that were to happen today, you would go from a $14 trillion dollar economy to about an $8 trillion dollar economy. That means that things are desperate. Major institutions are going bankrupt. People are going bankrupt because they've taken on too much debt and it's pushing the banks into bankruptcy as well.

TGR: So we are going to see the first signs of this at an institutional level?


IG:
I remember going to Japan to speak on the cycle about seven years ago. I was ferried around Tokyo by a man in this chauffeur-driven Jaguar. This gentleman was very interested in investing in gold. He was talking and pointing to these big skyscrapers and he said: "See this building? Owner bankrupt. Bank bankrupt." That was a big lesson for me. We're going to have the same kind of experience here in North America because the people who put those buildings up have borrowed heavily from the banks. They're going to go under and the banks are going to be in dire straits as a result of lending them all that money.

TGR: What's the timeframe for all of this?


IG:
It's already happening. I mean the debt bubble is unwinding worldwide. I think the next leg down restarts in earnest when it becomes apparent that North America's not immune to the banking crisis. We've already had the initial banking crisis here in North America; the Brits have had their banking crisis, and so on. But I think the next leg down will be some big bank in trouble in the United States. Then people will start to panic and move to gold. With that, the stock market will come down quite dramatically because the economy won't be recovering. We're not going into a double dip. We're going into a depression. I'm convinced of that.

TGR: Is there enough gold to go around?


IG:
We don't actually produce very much gold every year. We only produce about 80 million ounces from the mines. You've got a lot of people who are going to return to gold because that's the monetary medium that they really trust. Eighty million ounces a year isn't going to go a long way to satisfy the demand that I see happening.

TGR: But gold stocks went down along with everything else when we had the massive correction in 2008. If we get to $4,000 gold and a 1,000 DJIA, won't everything be pretty much wiped out?


IG:
We know what happened to the gold stocks following the 1929 peak. In the initial October 1929 crash, the gold stocks crashed alongside the general stock market. We had a rally back into April 1930 and the gold stocks came back in that rally. Then after April 1930, it was almost straight down for the Dow, yet the gold stocks continued to rise. The price of gold was fixed until January 1934 at $20.67, yet the gold stocks continued to go up.

For instance, Homestake Mining's price more than doubled between that drop in 1929 until early 1934, when the price of gold increased from $20 to $35 an ounce. So it doubled in the face of the Dow dropping quite dramatically. In fact, between 1929 and 1936, Homestake's price actually increased by six times its value. We see a similar thing happening this time. I mean at $4,000 gold, gold stocks are going to be worth a lot of money. Let's say they're producing gold at a cash cost of production of $500. At today's gold price per ounce they're making $600 or $650 an ounce in profit. If you go to $4,000, they're making $3,500.


TGR: But won't there be anarchy on the streets?IG: Well, I think there's going to be major civil unrest. You're starting to see a little bit of that manifesting itself in the form of these Tea Party groups that are in the United States. But when you start to see 25% unemployment and a Dow that's basically as worthless as it was in 1932, I think people are going to be pretty angry.


TGR: In your last conversation with The Gold Report, you talked about this happening perhaps as quickly as 2012.


IG:
The reason I picked 2012 as a bottom is because I was using anniversary dates because I'm a huge fan of W.D. Gann and that's kind of the work that he would've done. There are lots of anniversaries associated with 2012. . .It's the 80-year anniversary in 2012 of the 1932 bottom when the Dow was at 41 points. And 1982 was the bear market bottom that saw the beginnings of the big autumn bull market. Also, you've got an anniversary in 2002 when we had our first bear market bottom from that 2000 peak. There are so many anniversaries around that that I picked 2012, which would mean that you'd have to have a massive collapse starting almost immediately.

TGR: Great.


IG
: It is very difficult for people to comprehend this because, first of all, stocks have risen in value since the 1932 bottom when the Dow hit 41. Every time we've had a bear market, stocks have always recovered pretty well from that bear market and gone up to new highs. We've been conditioned to believe that stocks are a lifetime investment. We've demonstrated through our work they're actually not a lifetime investment. They work in the spring of the season because of the rebirth in the economy. They work in the autumn because of the speculative period spins in real estate. That's the massive bull market and it always occurs in the autumn of the cycle. Similarly, we've also been conditioned to expect that every time the economy has a hiccup we'll recover from the recession and go on to bigger and better things. In effect, that has happened as well.

TGR: Why should we think that won't happen again?


IG:
During the major 1980–1982 recession the U.S. was still a creditor nation. Her manufacturing base was much more significant than it is today. Her economy was probably 40% of the world economy. Now it's about 24% of the world's economy. This depression is something that we've never experienced. The recovery from these takes much, much longer because of all that debt that's being taken out of the system.

原文(全)連結:

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-price-to-cross-$4000oz-30636-3-1.html

 

小心巨龍的黃金利牙

Beware the Dragon's gold teeth

n 中國開始為了壟斷黃金市場而卡位,

n 如果成功,將獨霸世界的黃金市場。

China is putting itself in a position where

dominance of the gold market, of which

it is capable, could lead to it exerting

global financial hegemony.


n 中國省政府單位開始推廣

 民眾購買黃金和白銀作為投資。

n 世界黃金組織和中國已經簽約,

 協助中國公營單位推廣黃金

n 中國怕推升金價因此不敢公開向IMF買黃金。

n 中國現有購買力有能力壟斷獨霸

 稀有貴重金屬和黃金白銀的市場。


Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted:  Wednesday , 04 Aug 2010

LONDON - 

Almost a year ago Mineweb published a short article referring to a report from China that state-controlled organisations - as virtually all entities are in China - had launched marketing efforts at persuading its citizens to buy gold and silver as an investment.  This turned out to be the best read story ever published on Mineweb. Not surprisingly with such an article, which we have been assured by our Chinese contacts is correct, there have been those who have accused us of falling prey to pure promotional hype from the gold lobby and there has been no such programme.  But the facts belie the doubters with Chinese gold purchases by investors rocketing last year and this.

Earlier this year you could also have read on Mineweb that the World Gold Council had entered an agreement with China's, and the world's, largest bank the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (state-owned of course) to co-operate to promote gold investments in China.

Yesterday we learnt that China is further loosening its controls on the import and export of gold on the one hand, and on the other that it is also going to support Chinese company investment in overseas gold mining projects.

Does anyone notice a pattern emerging here?

For long we have put forward the view on Mineweb that Eastern buying, and that from China in particular, will effectively put a floor under the gold price - and that floor seems to be rising continuously as seen in the gold price's stair step advances in recent months.  A senior Chinese official has stated publicly that the country will buy gold on the dips so as not to disrupt the market and undermine the US dollar - and there is perhaps more than anecdotal evidence that the Chinese government is buying gold, effectively surreptitiously, for its reserves, but not disclosing this until it reckons it is opportune so to do.  Last time it announced an increase in gold reserves it had in fact been accumulating the yellow metal for 6 years before it actually made the fact public.

But why should China hold back dissemination of this information?  The Chinese know that an announcement that shows it has accumulated a further large gold holding will move the gold price sharply upwards. (Another reason why China has not bought any of the IMF gold.)  A resultant gold price leap could well be seen globally as a devaluation of the dollar, leading to yet another nail in the greenback's coffin, and given the dollar-related element in China's huge currency reserve surplus, that could be seen as not being in China's best interest - at least for now.

There has also been considerable evidence that Chinese companies (all state-controlled) have been buying up western investments - in the resource sector in particular - at a phenomenal, and seemingly ever-growing, rate.  Some would say this is an attempt to convert some of the nation's huge dollar currency surplus into hard assets, while at the same time helping secure future supply lines for the global industrial giant.  Some of China's top economists have gone on record as saying that they have little confidence in the long term future of the dollar as the only real reserve currency, and replacing some of its dollar reserves in this manner is probably - certainly - government policy.

But what this does mean to the West in general, and to the U.S.A. in particular, is ‘don't screw with the Dragon'.  It has golden teeth which can really cause financial damage to the status quo if it should so wish, and it is also gaining a position where it can dominate the supply of many militarily strategic metals and minerals, not just gold, should any other country try and resort to gunboat diplomacy!  The time is perhaps not ripe - yet, but every move that China makes in the resource sector in general, and in gold and in some particularly strategic metals and minerals (think rare earths) could be interpreted as a long term plan to make China top dog in the global economy and, at the same time, make it secure from any nation which might want to try to prevent it reaching this position of global dominance by any means. 

But in the meantime it is set on keeping its own 1.4 billion population happy - and subservient.  The best way of doing this is by continuing internal growth, which in turn is needed to generate the demand to fuel its industrial engine.  8% GDP growth is a bad year for China. What would most of the West's industrialised nations give for a growth rate of half that today?  Within this policy, persuading its new, and rapidly growing, middle classes to invest in gold, and then ensure the metal continues to rise gradually in price, thus maintain wealth aspirations,  is one way of keeping a potentially troublesome element of society more than happy.

Now maybe I'm being too cynical in my analysis, but history also suggests that some nations are prepared to look very long term in their approach to global business and politics, and ultimate dominance in both - and the Chinese seem to fit this pattern well.  On the other hand a capitalist democracy is less well suited to extended planning of this type as fortunes of political parties wax and wane and agendas are constantly shifting.  The world order is changing.  The U.S. cannot exert its current global financial control for ever.

原文(全)連結:

http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=109182&sn=Detail&pid=102055

 

MARKETS

AUGUST 4, 2010, 3:08 P.M. ET

由於中國和聯準會的影響

金價直逼$1200

Gold Threatens $1,200 on China, Fed Hopes

n 由於聯準會宣布進一步寬鬆資金面,

 以及中國需求的增加,促使黃金在

三個禮拜之內再度漲回歷史高點附近。

By MATT DAY

NEW YORK—Speculation about further easing of U.S. monetary policy and the chance of an increase in Chinese demand Wednesday pushed gold futures to their highest levels in almost three weeks.

The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, settled up $8.40, or 0.7%, at $1,195.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since July 15. Gold has advanced for six consecutive sessions, lifted first by bargain buying, when prices dipped to three-month lows, and recently by the likelihood of increased refuge demand if the economic recovery remains unsteady.

Gold was supported Wednesday by speculation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates or buy bonds to try to boost the economy, said Tom Pawlicki, precious-metals analyst with MF Global in Chicago. Even symbolic action by the Fed could send a signal that officials believe the economy is at risk of deflation or a renewed slowdown, enhancing the appeal of gold as an alternative asset.

Bloomberg News

Gold has found support in a weaker U.S. dollar and sluggish economic data.

Gold is sometimes bought as a hedge against a loss of purchasing power during weakness in other markets.

Futures also received continued support from the news that China would take steps to expand its domestic gold market. The People's Bank of China Tuesday announced that the government would permit more banks to export and import gold. Analysts say the easing of restrictions shouldn't immediately lead to an increase in gold investment, but it represents an expansion that could make China a larger player in the international gold market.

"I think the Chinese news is a longer-term underlying theme," said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist with Chicago-based Lind-Waldock. "If they're going to get more aggressive in letting people buy and sell more gold, it's a precursor to more moves from the central bank" in the gold market.

Gold futures trading was introduced to the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2008.

Comex silver futures fell for the first time in five sessions Wednesday. Most-active September silver settled down 14.4 cents, or 0.8%, at $18.278 an ounce.

Nymex platinum and palladium futures fell for a second consecutive day, as disappointing auto sales from Japan's two largest auto manufacturers weighed on the market. The metals' main industrial use is in automotive catalytic converters. October platinum settled down 90 cents, at $1,586.20 an ounce. September palladium slid $6.30, or 1.2%, to $500.15 an ounce.

原文(全)連結:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704017904575408920529409454.html

 

 

中國積極買進黃金,印度也跟進

China pushes for gold; India follows suit

緊緊跟著中國的腳步,印度央行準備提案

准許各銀行間以黃金結帳或買賣。

如果獲准通過,只會讓金市牛氣沖天。

n 中國開始允許銀行向其他國家買賣黃金,
並開放上海黃金交易中心讓海外公司前來買賣。

n 中國一直在不刺激金價的狀況下
買進黃金來滿足市場的需求。

n 印度2009年的黃金需求激漲了89%
而且銀行買進黃金是為了持有,而並非是為了買賣賺價差。

Hot on China's heels, India's Central bank is mulling a proposal to allow banks to trade in gold. If cleared, the move will only strengthen the validity of the bull case for the metal.

Author: Shivom Seth
Posted:  Monday , 09 Aug 2010

MUMBAI  - 

Hot on the heels of moves in China to expand the gold market in the country, several Indian bans have submitted a proposal to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank, to permit them to trade in gold in the domestic market and also hedge their requirements.

These banks hope to take advantage of the current bout of bargain-hunting taking place in the country as investors take advantage of lower prices.

At present, banks are only allowed to buy gold. India's central bank has permitted certain banks to import bullion on consignment basis for domestic jewellers and exporters but they do not stock gold. And, while a couple of the nominated banks authorised to import gold, sell gold coins at a premium of 10% to 15% over the market rate but, they are not permitted to buy back the gold they sell. Among their proposals, Indian banks have asked for permission to invest in gold exchange traded funds a move which is hoped will boost the trading of gold in demat and securitised forms.

Incidentally, banks and agencies such as the MMTC (Mines and Metals Trading Corporation) account for nearly 80% of the country's gold imports.

Asian tiger


China's central bank has said that it will allow its banks to import and export more gold as part of a programme to push forward the development of the country's market in the precious metal. China is already one of the largest gold producers in the world and a leading consumer.

According to reports, China's central bank is also ruminating over allowing second-tier institutions such as the Minsheng Banking Corp and China Merchants Bank to team up with four major state banks, including Bank of China, to hedge bullion positions in the overseas markets.
In a bid to increase the competitiveness of its domestic financial markets and broaden investment channels for ordinary customers, China's central bank is also looking at allowing foreign suppliers to provide gold bullion directly to the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Analysts have reportedly pointed out that China is keen that more of its banks trade with overseas counterparts, in a move that will reduce their reliance on the Shanghai Gold Exchange for hedging.
At the exchange, trading volumes have risen by more than half during the first six months of this year. HSBC and Standard Chartered are among five banks that are members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
For the full year 2009, India managed to import just over 35 tonnes, far below the 400 tonnes the country imported in 2008. China's purchases in 2009, on the other hand, equalled 11% of global gold demand.
During the last quarter of 2009, however, demand for the precious metal increased 84% in India. The country already accounts for over 20% of the world's gold demand.
Similarly, in the first quarter of 2010, India was termed the strongest performing market by the World Gold Council, as total consumer demand surged 698% to 193.5 tonnes. Indian jewellery demand rose 291% to 147.5 tonnes during the same period, the Council said.
World Gold Council's investment managing director, Marcus Grubb, told reporters recently that the full-year gold demand in India was expected to be stronger than in 2009.

Reasons galore


Some bankers have noted that one of the major reasons why gold imports to India have been plunging in recent months is because Indian banks hold a lot of carry-over gold stocks. ``Many consumers have stopped buying gold jewellery and are instead concentrating on imitation jewellery. Gold's high price in the last four months is another factor that has kept some of them away, leading to a further slump in imports,'' said an official with Mumbai-based Indian Bank, which is one of the 20 banks allowed to import gold. The bank's proposal in 2008, to launch gold bullion trading, was stymied due to the disapproval of the Central bank.

A Bombay Bullion Association report noted that gold imports have fallen this year, from 34 tonnes in January to 13.8 tonnes in June, with the trend broken only in April, when the country imported 34.2 tonnes. The spurt in April was to meet additional demand during the Akshya Trithiya festival, considered an auspicious occasion to buy gold.
An executive of the Punjab & Sind Bank said:  ``Gold is a popular investment vehicle in India, as well as being a traditional option for gifts. There is a lot of demand. In the present scenario, gold provides an excellent hedge against inflation, a source of liquidity and a form of savings as well,'' the executive, who declined to be named, pointed out. The bank is also awaiting clearance from the RBI, and is eager to trade in gold.
It may be recalled that gold had stormed to record highs following news that India's central bank had bought 200 tonnes of the metal from the IMF in October last. The Indian purchase had ensured that the RBI became the world's 10th largest central-bank gold holder. It was the biggest single central-bank purchase in at least 30 years over such a short period, according to Timothy Green, author of The Ages of Gold.
``India did not buy that gold to sell it. It wanted to own it and keep it,'' said the head of global markets at IndusInd Bank, another bank permitted by the Reserve Bank of India to import gold. ``If banks are allowed to trade in gold, the move will only strengthen the validity of the bull case in gold,'' the official added.
Citing the example of China, the official said, in its bid to overtake India as the world's top consumer, Beijing has allowed more domestic banks to export and import bullion. China has reportedly increased its official gold holdings by more than 400 tonnes in the past few years to 1,054 tonnes.
``Beijing is keen to focus on bringing more gold into the country to satisfy domestic demand, but will not stir up global prices through official purchases,'' the banker added. Other than banks, a few nominated government agencies and premier trading houses have also been allowed to import gold. With more banks in India now eager to step up to the plate, trading in the yellow metal could soon be a possibility.

原文(全)連結:

http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=109472&sn=Detail&pid=102055

 

下則新聞在告訴我們:

1. 當市場越來越熱絡時,詐騙集團會越來越多。

2. 黃金現在處於供不應求的狀態。

 

幾噸進口黃金抵達港口之後

變得一文不值

Tons of gold imports turn to

dust on arrival

n 投資者和業者廉價從UAE進口黃金,
仔細檢驗之後都是贗品

n 非洲賣出來比較便宜的黃金,
許多都只是斂財的騙局。
到達港口開箱之後,
發覺只是一些廢鐵五金而已。

n 連依索比亞央行裡的金磚都
只是鍍金的鐵塊罷了。


Gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection

By

  • VM Sathish

Published Sunday, August 15, 2010


Gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection. (FILE)

Several tons of gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection, resulting in millions of dirhams in losses and high levels of stress to the victims.

Speaking to Emirates 24|7, Mohamad Shakarchi,, Managing Director of Emirates Gold, said: "A lot of people in the UAE who tried to import gold at lower prices or through dubious overseas companies have been cheated.

We have inspected many consignments from African countries, especially Ghana, and found that there is not an ounce of gold in them.

For importing pure dust or other metals with yellow colour, these traders have paid several million dirhams.”

Dubai Customs sources confirmed the incidence of fake gold imports, but did not reply to a questionnaire sent by Emirates 24|7 ten days ago.

“The concerned official is on leave,” said a spokesman.

Emirates Gold has stopped examining gold imported from Africa. "We send specialists to examine a gold consignment only if it is routed through a local company.

We don’t have time to waste because most of these so called gold imports are fake. The traders got greedy. They thought they were getting gold at a discounted rate.”

Mohammed said that at least five tonnes of fake yellow metal is lying with Dubai Customs.

A tonne of gold will cost approximately $40 million. Merchants estimated that the minimum loss of fake gold imported by local traders is nothing less than $200 million.

He said many clients and Dubai Customs have requested the use of company’s expertise to verify the purity of gold. “The fake gold issue has affected many people. Some of the traders got heart attack, after our inspectors said there is no gold in the tonnes of imports brought from Africa,” Mohammed said.

Recent media reports suggested that several million dollars worth of gold with the Ethiopian Central Bank turned out to be fake. These bars of gold turned out to be gold plated steel bars

African gold merchants claim to be in possession of large quantities of gold dust or gold bars, which they offer to sell at below market prices.

The would-be buyer is made to send money for travel of the seller, for insurance, for shipping and for refinery assays before they would receive anything of any value. Investors are shown samples, which may be original gold.

But when the consignment reaches the port, it will be only mud or sand. Once Dubai Customs tightened controls, fake gold imports started reaching the UAE through other ports.

The seller can walk away at any point with virtually no risk of being caught as all contacts are via anonymous free webmail accounts accessed from Internet cafes and via prepaid mobile phones.

After the real estate and stock market investments became dull, many local investors have turned to commodity, especially gold investment, said the Chief
Executive Officer of JRG Commodities, Sajith Kumar PK.

http://www.emirates247.com/markets/gold/tons-of-gold-imports-turn-to-dust-on-arrival-2010-08-15-1.279082

FrederickWang 發表在 痞客邦 PIXNET 留言(19) 人氣()


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  • nervlee
  • 只要是銀行,所有的文件都是針對紙資產進行preantation , 都有他們的目的"銷售" ,大部分都有毒 ,有毒的資訊對體質叫好的傘戶,可以承受 ,度體質較弱的, ㄏㄏ
    黃金,尤其是投資等級的實體黃金,依據麥克的說法, 超過15000美元 ,所以不管銀行怎麼說 ,堅守基本的價值信念,就會覺得這些報告都是笑話
  • silver-knights
  • 幻彩(反NEW WORLD ORDER!)

    今天去台灣銀行北高雄分行買幻彩缺貨~~~跑到前金分行才買到!
  • 悄悄話
  • nervlee
  • 現在99/9/15日凌晨,看到黃金暴漲27美元,已經刷新歷史天價1265美元,應證了恐怖的預言即將成真,
  • go7color
  • 現在更突破1270美元了,耶~
  • 輕舟已過萬重山
  • 突破整數關卡會上媒體頭版頭條

    2009年在1000大關卡前950+/-拉鋸戰好幾個月 然後緩緩超越1000大關卡 直衝1200才稍微拉回1100整理
    從此1000天花板變成1000地板
  • tpc2005815
  • 今天又去屏東分行買幻彩,那邊還有現貨,趕緊再去買幾條!保有自己的購買力!
  • nervlee
  • 我買的幻彩與鴻運及金鑽最低是880美元/oz 最高為1186美元/oz ,平均為1132美元/oz, 可是馬龍尼說已連準會瘋狂印製垃圾美元的現況 ,15000美元 / oz才是真正的價值
  • gigi
  • 今天去台銀買金鑚條塊時,我前面那位小姐買了四個百年紀念版的金鑚條塊及四個兔年的銀幣,我有問那些到時台銀是不接受回售的,那就是他們的流通性沒有那麼好,是不建議購買的,不知是否有人可以跟我講,我這樣子的觀念對不對?
    還有,就立天老師講的觀念,台銀的幻彩和金鑚條塊、加拿大楓葉和鴻運金幣都是可以購買的是嗎?想在進一步確定一下,再請各位善心的人,幫我解答一下,衷心感謝大家。
  • summerblue
  • 提醒一件事情....在台銀購買金塊你必須要填寫相關資料...有沒有想過為什麼??
    如果沒記錯的話...在戰亂時期..為了安定國家經濟..政府有絕對的權利回收你的金塊..
    記得去查證一下囉!^^
  • 咦?我把黃金賣給了某家銀樓…,
    被偷了不敢報案怕老婆家母知道…,
    借給海外親戚周轉(這招不能超過$20000美元的出關限制)…
    忘了埋在哪裡…
    儲放在911雙子星大樓裡的銀行…
    早就私下變現了…
    跟人以物易物了…

    Fred和朋友能想的都想過了,
    可是想得很周全;
    初級「財務救生筏」一天課程
    由於時間不夠沒有講到這塊
    但是Fred的財務計畫中的步驟
    都很確實喔!

    FrederickWang 於 2010/09/16 07:06 回覆

  • silver-knights
  • 回應summerblue

    沒錯~~~這也是我擔心的一件事!包括外國進口的白銀入關資料!所以~~~想辦法人為遺失或備案遭竊吧!
  • nervlee
  • 亂講,我在竹北六家的臺銀買時,從來沒填過甚麼資料,你只要跟櫃台說要買甚麼種類的金幣或條塊,付錢就可以了,要填資料的台銀是明顯違法的
  • Fred在台北台銀武昌買黃金
    是要填一張購買種類、規格、數量等資料的「購買清單」,
    不知summerblue說的是不是這份?

    FrederickWang 於 2010/09/16 07:07 回覆

  • go7color
  • 我在台銀購買金鑽條塊也是要填寫購買清單,因為沒有在台銀開戶所有又要填寫一張個人資料,行員將個人資料入系統,說這樣他們才能處理。(個人資料只有第一次要填寫)
  • nervlee
  • 黃金將到1280 美元 /oz , ㄏㄏㄏㄏㄏ.....
  • gigi
  • 感謝Fred及各位大大的解惑,我去台銀買時也有寫購買清單。
    政府要回收時,就死賴活賴黃金不在自己身上就對了
  • 薇琪
  • 怪了!我在竹北家樂福對面的台灣銀行買了三次,從來沒有要我寫過任何購買清單~
    我給她現金,她就給我發票和金賺條塊而已耶...這樣會不會有問題??
    現在對於打造財務救生筏還是一知半解的狀態,非常期待上Fred的"財務救生筏",一知道要開課就馬上報名,結果10/2的課要延期,讓我好失望,真的很希望能趕快上到這個課,再麻煩費小姐和Fred的安排囉...^___^
  • nervlee
  • 竹北只有一家賣實體黃金,一開始在新竹市的中央信託局開始到現在從來都沒有被要求過填寫什麼資料, 假設如果填假資料,台北武昌的台銀也無法查證吧
  • ajay
  • 高雄台灣銀行前金分行(原中央信託局)
    每次去買都會要求填寫資料 雖不甘願但還為了作業快一點也不想跟行員盧
    但說實在 黃金很難追蹤 甚至說吃下肚子他們也沒辦法查證
  • T.williams
  • 我在台北武昌台銀現金買黃金,超過五十萬元要查核身份證耶,他說這樣才有辦法處理,另一次是以台灣銀行存款簿購買黃金就只有填單給發票,但是上訴兩個方法都會留有資料在銀行。有沒有人也遇過這種狀況阿,去哪家分行買超過五十萬不會被查核呢?