下次抒困的對象？(B)     

美國房屋局面臨鉅額「毀滅性」的房貸欠繳

 
（接自A則新聞）
因為一旦民眾開始提領存款（為了轉買黃金保值、或害怕銀行倒閉…等理由，嚴重的情形稱之為「銀行擠兌」），當銀行存款準備金耗盡，那麼通貨緊縮就會以5倍的速度（美國是10倍，是該國存款準備率的倒數）加速發生。

由於民眾繳不起貸款而使得銀行業者的資產迅速縮水。銀行收緊銀根、或倒閉、或因通貨緊縮使原本惡化的經濟更加萎縮、造成民眾生活更苦、生活更苦使得政府稅收更少…，如此惡性循環不已。

這種情形難道沒有救嗎？相信大家都聽過「上山容易，下山難」、「出來混，總有一天要還的」、「凡是會上去的，並定會下來」這些話吧？！你以為美國1999年網路大泡沫、2005年不動產大泡沫等都不用付出代價的嗎？廉價的融資和貸款，現在開始要出場償還；價值被嚴重炒高的資產，現在要回歸到正常的價格。當時市場上去的時候舉國歡騰，好像不進場投資的就是傻瓜，現在市況要下來了，要全世界一起來買單。

投資就像在玩「音樂椅子」的遊戲。小時候玩過沒有？椅子的數量比人數少一點（通常是少一張），遊戲開始的時候老師會放音樂，一旦音樂停止，大家就開始搶椅子坐，沒搶到椅子的就被淘汰出局。

資本主義下的投資市場也一樣的道理。當市場逐步墊高時，5%少數有辦法的人真的拼命搶走了80%錢（80%的椅子早就被搶走了）；當市場邁入空頭（音樂停止），95%後知後覺的群眾不但開始搶剩餘20%的椅子（出脫持股、認賠殺出、搶反彈），連原本遊戲一開始在旁邊觀看的政府（別班同學）也進來搶剩下20%的椅子（抽稅加稅、印鈔票再讓你的鈔票變得更薄）。

一旦許多民眾越來越窮（搶不到椅子），就會開始出現亂象…

（接C則新聞）

The Next Big Bailout? FHA Facing "Cataclysmic" Default Rates

Posted Oct 13, 2009 09:00am EDT by Aaron Task

Given the choice between "complete collapse" and increased government involvement in the housing market, Whitney Tilson, manager of T2 Partners, is glad policymakers opted for the latter in 2008.

But there is going to be a heavy price to pay for the U.S. government becoming the nation's mortgage broker, says Tilson, co-author of More Mortgage Meltdown.

Specifically, Tilson is worried about the potential need for a bailout of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which has guaranteed about 25% of all new U.S. mortgages written in 2009, up from just 2% in 2005.

Created in 1934 to help low-income and first-time homeowners, the FHA has historically played a minor role in the U.S. housing market. But the agency has become the government's vehicle of choice for mortgage financing in the past year.

Again, Tilson supports the concept of the government stepping into the breach caused by the near total cessation of private mortgage lending, as well as the curtailed financial activity of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which became wards of the state in September 2008. But "there's a price to pay," he says, noting the FHA is facing "cataclysmic default rates" on loans written in 2006, 2007 and early 2008, as detailed by The NY Times.

"Effectively we the taxpayers are now guaranteeing mortgages written by over 10,000 FHA-approved lenders," Tilson says. "The FHA's portfolio is exploding [and] the taxpayer is now on the hook for 100% of the losses."

How big of a hook? The FHA's mortgage portfolio is now approaching $1 trillion. You can't assume all those mortgages will default but you can assume the FHA's exposure will only grow in the months ahead as politicians continue to look for ways to support the housing market (especially in an election year.) 

In other words, FHA is looking very much like the "new Fannie Mae."