投資股票只能三選一:

看多,看空,或持平不玩。

 

玩選擇權則能三選二:

大漲大跌都大賺,盤整時小賠;或者

大漲大賺,盤整小賺,只要跌就小賠;

大跌大賺,盤整小賺,只要漲就小賠等等。

 

唯有在當今2010

環顧全球的經濟環境,

未來的金融局勢,

以及各國債務累累的狀況下

去投資貴重金屬,

你就能來個三選三:

一﹑通貨緊縮物價下跌時:

金價也跟著下跌,

但是黃金實質購買力大漲

Fred在課程中講1949年台灣的實例)

或者

 

二﹑通貨膨脹物價上揚時:

金價也跟著大漲,

鈔票再次變成廢紙,

不但可以獲得無限大的投資報酬率

而且你仍然可以用黃金買到東西;

 

三﹑局勢維持不變:

你買的黃金還是你的

到老也不怕貶值,

也不會像股票宣告破產被清算

變成廢紙。

就算到世界任何的角落

也都能幫你買到當地的東西。

 

如果碰到不信此理的人,

真的不用跟他爭論什麼,

好好打造自己的財務救生筏就是了。

以下是一些有關於金價趨勢的消息:

 

黃金進入良性循環

GOLD ENTERING A

VIRTUOUS CIRCLE

n 19211981年間,黃金和金礦類股
佔全球資產類別的
25%
今天,兩者只佔了全球投資資產的
0.9%
如果要回復當年的比例,
那麼金價將會超過
$31000

n 就算未來全球資產目前的市值縮水2/3
金價也至少會超過
$10000的價位。

``Gold and gold mining shares were an average of around 25% of world financial asset between 1921 and 1981. Today, gold and mining shares are only 0.9% of world financial assets. If gold and mining shares were to go to 25% of financial assets, gold would go to over $31,000. But even if we assume that world financial asset would go down by 2/3rds from here that would put gold at over $10,000. ''

原文(全)連結:

http://ml-implode.com/staticnews/2010-09-06_GOLDENTERINGAVIRTUOUSCIRCLE.html

 

全球股市下修 金價逆勢上揚

更新日期:2010/08/26 04:12

〔記者廖千瑩/台北報導〕

美國房市數據不佳,引發股市修正賣壓,

代表恐慌程度的VIX指數單日大漲7%,

全球股市從美股一路修正至亞股,

美國道瓊指數面臨萬點保衛戰,

台股、日股等亞股幾乎全倒,

唯獨金價發揮避險效果而上揚,

金價每英兩價格再突破1230美元


投信法人認為,市場恐慌氣氛再起,

黃金再度發揮避險效果上漲,目前看來,

在近期股市震盪波動之際,可適度持有債券

減低股市衝擊,另近期表現抗跌的黃金,

中長期還是看好,投資人可多留意。


美國剛公布的成屋銷售數據創下15年新低,

再度點燃市場對經濟復甦放緩的恐慌,

道瓊工業指數面臨萬點保衛戰,

也衝擊昨天亞股開低走低,市場氣氛凝重。


在全球股市全數修正之際,黃金再成為資金的避風港,

昨天國際金價維持1230美元之上。

匯豐黃金及礦業股票型基金經理人過孟袁認為,

短期來看,復甦前景蒙上陰影,帶動金價走揚,

但上攻力道不夠健全,金價進入1230到1240美元後

恐怕引發一波賣壓,近期金價將呈現高檔震盪。


股市近期陷入震盪,ING新興高收益債組合

基金經理人黃若愷則表示,搭配債券投資,

可減低股市下跌衝擊。

 

預測金價最準的Hitzfeld

2011年的金價上修至$1400

Gold's Most-Accurate Forecaster

Hitzfeld Raises 2011's

Estimate to $1,400

n 這三季以來彭博資訊追蹤所有金價預測者,
就屬
Hitzfeld最精準。
最近他將
2011年每盎司的金價
往上修正至
$1400美元。

n 是因為美國持續提供抒困金額、
國債過高、中國需求旺盛所致。

By Nicholas Larkin - Sep 6, 2010 11:02 PM GMT+0800

UniCredit SpA’s Jochen Hitzfeld, the most accurate gold forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the last three quarters, raised his estimate for the metal’s average price next year by 12 percent to $1,400 an ounce.

Bullion will average $1,600 an ounce in 2012, Munich-based Hitzfeld said today in a report. He increased next year’s forecast from $1,250. Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,249.75 at 3:45 p.m. in London, 1.2 percent below a record $1,265.30 reached on June 21.

The metal is headed for a 10th annual climb in a row this year, helped by concern about the effect of government economic- stimulus plans and speculation about increased demand in China, the world’s second-largest buyer after India. The Federal Reserve last month decided to restart Treasury purchases, its first attempt to bolster growth since March 2009 to keep the U.S. economy from relapsing into recession.

“The gold market reacted extremely positively to a monetization of government debt” in the past, Hitzfeld said. “In the interim, a growing number of Chinese investors are also discovering the gold market. The Chinese demand will now increasingly be felt on the global markets.”

China, the world’s biggest gold producer, last month unveiled plans to let more banks import and export bullion and give foreign companies greater access to trading.

The Fed opted to reinvest principal payments on mortgage holdings into long-term Treasury securities. The U.S. central bank first resorted to direct bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing, as part of its response to the world financial crisis. The latest Fed decision means investors remain concerned about inflation, Hitzfeld said.

Gold climbed the past five weeks, the longest winning streak since September last year. The median estimate for next year’s average price is $1,247.50, according to 17 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-06/gold-s-most-accurate-forecaster-hitzfeld-raises-2011-s-estimate-to-1-400.html

 


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  • tony
  • 看來富爸爸的預測中
    1400美元那個中的可能性比較大

    盤整下跌的那個以目前來看似乎不太可能

    ps:金價創歷史新高收盤價1271美元的隔天9/15
    日本忽然明著宣佈要阻止日元升值,時間點真是巧