回想當年日本賺了大筆美國外匯,

也就是日本是美國的債主,

所以債主決定拿著美元到美國「兌現」,

甚至誇口買下紐約曼哈頓島。

結果引起美國金融界的危機意識,

因此在1990年代爆發「世界金融大戰」,

結果美國戰勝,日本戰敗,

造成日本經濟一蹶不振,

也就是日本「失落的十年」的濫觴。

 

如今換成中國持有大量的美國外匯,

中國不想重蹈日本覆轍,

兩國自2008年二月起就不斷交鋒,

如今暗鬥已經昇華成名爭,

看樣子第二次世界金融大戰及將要爆發!

你認為誰會勝出?

其實Fred都知道了,

在這裡先賣個關子,

(但是會在「秘密課程」中公布答案,

避免讓人以為Fred打算放馬後砲)。

 

在這種變局下,

聰明的你,

會做些什麼樣的準備?!

 

中美情勢因人民幣升高

兩強有攤牌之虞

US-China clash over yuan escalates, risking superpower stand-off

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has issued his harshest attack to date on China’s currency policy, the latest move in an escalating superpower clash across the gamut of commercial and strategic relations.

n 美國財政部長強烈批評中國人民幣政策。
他表示:「對於危害到美國經濟的
中國貨幣政策,美方表達嚴重的關切。」

n 他說:「中美貿易赤字不斷在擴大,
而中國仍然在大大累積外匯,遠超過該國所需。
雖然人民幣貨幣政策有助於沿海城市
經濟持續的發展,以及中國政局的穩定,
但是這麼做已經造成美國經濟的不穩定。」
Fred註:你們得了便宜還賣乖!自食惡果!)

n 中國外交部也對這番話做出回應:
「人民幣升值無助於縮小中美貿易逆差,
也無法改善美國失業率的問題。
對人民幣施壓,迫使其升值,
甚至有可能產生和美國預期完全相反的結果。」

Fred註:沒錯!人民幣漲跌與美國失業率
沒有一定的關係!自己想利用錢滾錢的方式
控制全球已經行不通了!
未來是誰做事誰就收錢,
也就「有做有賺」的時代!)

n 日本也表示中國貨幣政策
也開始危害到日本的經濟。
Fred註:狗腿!傀儡!)

n 在這種情況下,如果美國和英國進行第二波抒困動作,
將會嚴重危害到全球的經濟和金融局勢。
Fred註:沒錯!全球貨幣氾濫,
美國拿不到(借不到)真正的錢,
還想拼命印廢紙來買單!別想了!)

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 7:09PM BST 16 Sep 2010

 

US Treasury Secretary

Timothy Geithner has strongly

criticised China's move.

 

“We are very concerned about the negative impact of (China’s) policies on our economic interests,” he told a Congressional hearing on Beijing’s use of exchange intervention for trade advantage.

“The pace of appreciation has been to slow. The undervalued renminbi helps China’s export sector. It encourages out-sourcing of production and jobs from the United States. By continuing a rigid exchange rate, China is impeding the adjustments needed to secure sustainable global growth,” he said.

The tough talk comes amid concerns that the global currency order is unravelling, with countries breaking ranks in a `beggar-thy-neigbour’ use of 1930s-style devaluation to help exporters and shore up their economies.

Japan became the latest country to intervene this week, carrying out massive dollar and euro purchases to weaken the yen. Sander Levin, chair of the US House Ways and Means Committee, called the move “deeply disturbing”, chiefly because it muddies the political water and lets China off the hook.

Mr Geithner’s ire follows a move by US trade chief Ron Kirk to file two cases against China at the World Trade Organization, alleging bias against US steel producers and credit card companies. Mr Kirk said he was “fighting for the American jobs threatened by China’s actions.”

Trade expert Gary Hufbauer from Washington’s Peterson Institute said the tensions risk triggering a dangerous clash.” The US and China are now adversaries, not enemies, but if the Obama administration pushes this trade agenda the way it is now doing, we will end up antagonists,” he said.

Professor Hufbauer said the White House has lost faith in “quiet diplomacy”, irked that the yuan has hardly moved since Beijing ended the dollar peg in June. This is spiced by populist fever before the mid-term elections in November.

“The US trade deficit with China is widening, yet the Chinese are still accumulating reserves at remarkable rate, beyond their needs. They know that growth in China’s coastal provinces is their passport to political stability, but this is incompatible with US political stability,” he said.

“We have grievances piling up in tyres, aluminium, paper, and steel, and it has all come to a head. Of course, China is getting an unfair share of the blame from this anti-globalisation mood on Capitol Hill. The truth is that when the US curbed imports of Chinese tyres, sales went to Brazil and Mexico instead, not to US producers,” he said.

Jiang Yu from China’s foreign ministry echoed the point. “Appreciation of the renminbi will not resolve the deficit between the US and China and will not resolve US domestic unemployment. Pressure will not only fail to solve the problems; it could have the opposite effect,” she said..

Views are clearly hardening on both sides. Over 140 members of Congress have so far backed the Ryan-Murphy bill enforcing sanctions against China for currency abuse, siding with US domestic industry and trade unions against US multinationals with plant in China.

There are few saints in this global currency game. Sterling has dropped by 20pc since the credit crisis, a side-effect of low interest rates. The US Federal Reserve has been “steering” the dollar lower. But the Anglo-Saxon duo they at least have trade deficits.

It is very different when surplus states such as China intervene to prevent trade adjustment. They are in effect exporting surplus capacity, and starving the world of demand. This is a recipe for global slumps.

Japan’s leaders say privately that China’s actions have begun to threaten their country’s industrial base, forcing Tokyo to respond with its own solo intervention or stand by as its exporters are asphyxiated and its economy tips into a deflationary spiral.

The twist is that Japan itself has a large trade surplus -- though for different reasons -- so it is in effect passing the unwanted parcel to the US and Europe rather than allowing the global system to come back into equilibrium.

If Britain and the US launch decide to a launch fresh blast of monetary stimulus, they in turn may succeed in passing the parcel back again. Economists say this is not a healthy way to run a global currency system.

原文(全)連結:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8007629/US-China-clash-over-yuan-escalates-risking-superpower-stand-off.html

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