上週到銀行辦事,

跟行員聊到美元匯率的問題。

行員:「台幣又升了,你看美元會跌到哪裡?」

Fred:「零」

行員:「你的意思是說跌到三-(30)新台幣的水準嗎?」

Fred:「不是,是zero,零,一文不值。」

行員:「真的嗎?可能嗎?我才剛剛買進一大堆美元呢…」

Fred:「是的,連將來的新泛美元的鈔票都已經亮相了。」

行員:「那美元怎麼辦?會怎樣?」(還不死心)

Fred:「就像歐元體制下的法郎、馬克等一樣,被取代之後消失。」

行員:「這聽起來太可怕了,應該不會發生吧…」

Fred:「…」(無言)

 

除了擁有傑出財務智商的格友們能看懂這則新聞,

Fred認為許多人只是瀏覽一下就過去了。

或許一些還沒有覺醒的人會想一下:

n  為什麼美元會落難,不再吃香?!

n  為什麼美元有可能崩盤?!

n  為什麼美元的末日將會影響全球百姓,也就是你我的生活?!

這位記者是明眼人,財商也夠,

此一境界幾人能同遊!?

只可惜報導篇幅不夠,

無法詳加說明美元落難的來龍去脈,

因此仍然無法撼動冥頑不靈的人們。

該新聞只點出了重點,

以饗內行的讀者,

足以展現這位記者的水準!

 

美元落難 觀光景點拒收

 更新日期:2010/10/10 04:11

〔記者高嘉和/台北報導〕

近幾年來,美元匯率如螺旋般走跌,

 原本暢行全球無阻的美元不再吃香,

 印度許多觀光景點,如泰姬瑪哈陵,

前年開始就不再接受觀光客直接以美元買門票;

 巴西全球最富有的名模吉賽兒近年來洽談合約也拒收美元、

 要求以歐元支酬。

不只印度這種開發中國家嫌棄美元,背包客莊小姐說,

近年來,巴黎跳蚤市場、甚至美國觀光區的一些商店,

都貼出EURO ONLY(只收歐元),不願收美元,以免做賠本生意。


假如美元崩盤?撇開複雜的國際匯率戰爭等經濟影響,

對一般人的生活衝擊,以美元計價的國際原物料價格將暴漲,

國際油價將重回百美元以上高價,開車出門得更精打細算,

家用天然氣會愈來愈貴。

小麥、黃豆等行情走揚,吃碗麵、買個麵包,都要花更多錢;

還有帳戶中以美元計價的投資商品價值將縮水就算淨值增加,

也會被匯損吃掉大半

美元持續走貶、甚至崩盤,絕對會影響到每個人的生活。

不僅中東生產原油的富國吃不消,大量仰賴進口食物、

日常用品的開發中國家更吃不消,缺糧搶糧等事件將頻傳。

所以,假如美元崩盤,對日常生活最直接的衝擊是物價上漲,

再來是美元資產的損失,任誰也躲不了

 

和「美元末日」相關的新聞還有:

土耳其和中國擺脫美元直接進行貿易

Turkey, China Shun the Dollar in

Conducting Trade

OCTOBER 8, 2010, 10:40 A.M. ET

ISTANBUL (Dow Jones)--Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and China Premier Wen Jiabao said Friday their two countries would from now on trade using their own currencies, effectively excluding the U.S. dollar.

The two leaders also pledged to triple trade between China and Turkey to $50 billion within five years, and to $100 billion by 2020, speaking at a joint news conference in Ankara that marked the final stop of Mr. Wen's European tour.

"We are forming an economic strategic partnership ... In all of our relations, we have agreed to use the lira and yuan," Mr. Erdogan said.

原文(全)連結:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101008-707616.html

 

高盛銀行預測:美元將會急速下跌

Dollar set for sharp decline,

Goldman forecasts

n     隨著華府打算推出二次紓困案,
高盛銀行預測未來十二個月的期間內,
美元將會急速下跌

n     同時公開宣稱全球最大經濟體的美國,
在未來
 六至九個月內將會面臨「蠻糟糕的」,
甚至「很慘」的經濟情況。


The dollar will embark on a sharp decline over the next 12 months, Goldman Sachs forecast on Wednesday, as policy makers in Washington look poised to press the trigger on another round of printing money.

By Richard Blackden
Published: 6:00AM BST 07 Oct 2010

While the US economy is growing again, the recovery has failed to "catch fire" in the words of one Federal Reserve official.

The investment bank expects the dollar to drop to $1.79 against the pound in six months and $1.85 in 12 months. Sterling closed at $1.5891 in London yesterday. The euro won’t be spared either, with the dollar’s slump forcing it to $1.50 six months from now and $1.55 in a year’s time.

Powered by President Obama’s stimulus package and a rebound in inventories, the US recovery peaked in the final three months of last year and has been slowing ever since.

As the summer delivered a diet of weak economic data, the conviction has strengthened among a growing number of officials at the Federal Reserve that it should risk another bout of quantitative easing - printing money to inject into the economy.

“More QE is seen as a co-ordinated effort to get the dollar lower,” said Thomas Stolper of Goldman Sachs. “It makes sense for the US.”

Separately, Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, warned that the world’s biggest economy faces a “fairly bad” or a “very bad" scenario over the next six to nine months.

原文(全)連結:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/8047468/Dollar-set-for-sharp-decline-Goldman-forecasts.html

 

 

 

想看更多美元末日相關文章?

>2009/11/4   美元的末日(續)

>2009/11/5   美元的末日(續)

 

 

 

 

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