最近報紙經常有利多的消息，例如：
「美股獲得支撐，將要挑戰12000點」
「今天股市重返8000大關」
「今年年終獎金會很豐厚」…等等。
但是任何投資股海的老手都知道，
「Insider內線交易（公司派）」
的買賣消息是股市的領先指標之一。
而且許多專家都認為，
當前的經濟環境仍然詭譎多變，
尚未完全恢復正常，
因此2011年大環境仍然是前景不明。
想要致富，要跟著哪一種人學習？
想要獲利，要模仿哪一種人的作為？
各位是聰明人，
自然知道適合自己的方式。
內線人士賣出持股創歷史天量
Insider Selling Volume at Highest Level Ever Tracked
Published: Tuesday, 26 Oct 2010 | 2:26 PM ET
By: John Melloy
n
自追蹤此一數字以來，
在那斯達克賣出持股的內線人士（公司派），
從來就沒有這麼大的成交量過。
n
包含蘋果電腦、Google、亞瑪遜等主要指數成分股，
公司派內線人士買賣比例高達創紀錄的1：3177倍，
面對嚴峻的下修壓力。
n 但主流市場仍然因為眾多利多消息而持續上漲。
The overwhelming volume of sell transactions relative to buy transactions by company insiders over the last six months in key leading sectors of the market is the worst Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, has ever seen since he began tracking the data.
The strategist looked at insider trading activity amongst the top ten companies that make up the Nasdaq such as Apple
Then he analyzed the biggest members of the Retail HOLDRs ETF like Gap
The largest companies in three of the most important leading sectors of the market have seen their executives classified as insiders sell more than 120 million shares of stock over the last six months. Top executives at these very same companies bought just 38,000 shares over that same time period, making for an eye-popping sell to buy ratio of 3,177 to one.
The grand total for the three sectors are “as awful as we have ever seen since we began doing this exercise years ago,” said Newman, who was ahead on such trends as the dangers of high-frequency trading and ETFs before the ‘Flash Crash’. “Clearly, insiders are seeing great value only in cash. Their actions speak volumes for the veracity for the current rally.”
But the overall market doesn’t seem to care. The S&P 500 is up 16 percent since its 2010 low hit on July 2nd on the back of strong earnings driven by cost-cutting and the hopes for even more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve.
The insider data “is good reason for considerable caution once the price action fades,” said Simon Baker, CEO of Baker Asset Management. Still “insiders normally buy early and sell early too. Longer term -- 12 months out -- it is more of a red flag.”
Newman isn’t alone in warning about insider selling. The latest report from Vickers Weekly Insider, a publication that makes investments based upon these transactions, shows that total insider sell transactions relative to purchases on the New York Stock Exchange are running at a ratio of more than four to one over the last eight weeks. The normal reading, because of options selling and other factors, is about 2 sales for every buy, according to Vickers.
To be sure, many investors feel the heavy insider selling is just an anomaly based on other reasons.
“These are folks that have had to dip into their stocks for the first time in years, as their salaries have been cut and their bonuses, outside Wall Street, have been significantly curtailed,” said J.J. Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist for TD Ameritrade. “ This may speak more to a cash flow problem, then a market belief.”
Still Newman, who is also a favorite commentator of Barron’s columnist Alan Abelson, sees the insider selling as just the latest reason, along with the mortgage foreclosure mess and fully invested mutual fund managers with no fresh powder to put to work, to be cautious on the market.
“At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect a significant correction,” said the newsletter editor.
原文（全）連結：
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39850796
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