由於1933年美國經濟大蕭條的關係，
促使美國政府成立許多照顧失業民眾的機構，
例如社會福利保障制度(Social Security)、
聯邦住宅部門(Federal Housing Administration)、
存款保險制度(Deposit Insurance)、
聯邦存款保險公司(FDIC)、
醫療健保制度(Medicare)、與
醫療補助計畫(Medicaid)…等等機構。
許多其他國家也跟著有樣學樣，
造成自己國家財政方面嚴重的赤字，
多年來讓全球的政府機構
都是負債累累、
瀕臨破產的邊緣。
問題除了大肆揮霍、無止境膨脹的公家機構之外，
再加上憑空印製紙鈔來彌補財政赤字的作為，
讓現在世界上許多國家都形成了
富者越富，貧者越貧，
鈔票越來越薄、失業率增加、
等等社會問題。
由於台灣進出口都是採用美元計價，
台幣的價值以及外匯存底，
也都跟美元息息相關。
當美國宣布破產，
美元被世界各國拋棄之時，
台灣無可避免地一定會受到相當的影響。
大家記得要隨時留意美國政府
當時的狀況與所下決定的相關新聞，
提早做準備。
Neil Reynolds
令人恐懼的美國國債
The scary actual U.S. government debt
n
波士頓大學經濟學者宣稱美國國債並非像原先公布的
只佔美國國民生產毛額GDP的60%而已，
反而比這個數字大上14倍之譜：接近200兆美元，
也就是GDP的八倍半。
n
他建議政府將營業稅提高至18%率、
並且大砍2/3醫療健保預算，
才能暫時停止讓債務惡化。
n 如果以美國年度財政赤字
來衡量國債的累積速度與金額，
美國政府的經濟狀況遠比希臘的還要差。
n
美國再不動手處理國債，
累積的速度即將越過一個臨界點，
也就是未來的經濟成長再也無法追上債務膨脹的速度。
n
美國政府的會計方式跟恩隆（Enron）公司沒有兩樣，
根本是胡謅出來的。熟知內幕的人都會認為美國政府的
財政報告比史帝夫金(Stephen King)的驚聳小說還恐怖。
OTTAWA— From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff says U.S. government debt is not $13.5-trillion (U.S.), which is 60 per cent of current gross domestic product, as global investors and American taxpayers think, but rather 14-fold higher: $200-trillion – 840 per cent of current GDP. “Let’s get real,” Prof. Kotlikoff says. “The U.S. is bankrupt.”
Writing in the September issue of Finance and Development, a journal of the International Monetary Fund, Prof. Kotlikoff says the IMF itself has quietly confirmed that the U.S. is in terrible fiscal trouble – far worse than the Washington-based lender of last resort has previously acknowledged. “The U.S. fiscal gap is huge,” the IMF asserted in a June report. “Closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14 per cent of U.S. GDP.”
This sum is equal to all current U.S. federal taxes combined. The consequences of the IMF’s fiscal fix, a doubling of federal taxes in perpetuity, would be appalling – and possibly worse than appalling.
Prof. Kotlikoff says: “The IMF is saying that, to close this fiscal gap [by taxation], would require an immediate and permanent doubling of our personal income taxes, our corporate taxes and all other federal taxes.
“America’s fiscal gap is enormous – so massive that closing it appears impossible without immediate and radical reforms to its health care, tax and Social Security systems – as well as military and other discretionary spending cuts.”
He cites earlier calculations by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that concluded that the United States would need to increase tax revenue by 12 percentage points of GDP to bring revenue into line with spending commitments. But the CBO calculations assumed that the growth of government programs (including Medicare) would be cut by one-third in the short term and by two-thirds in the long term. This assumption, Prof. Kotlikoff notes, is politically implausible – if not politically impossible.
One way or another, the fiscal gap must be closed. If not, the country’s spending will forever exceed its revenue growth, and no one’s real debt can increase faster than his real income forever.
Prof. Kotlikoff uses “fiscal gap,” not the accumulation of deficits, to define public debt. The fiscal gap is the difference between a government’s projected revenue (expressed in today’s dollar value) and its projected spending (also expressed in today’s dollar value). By this measure, the United States is in worse shape than Greece.
…
He says the U.S. cannot end its fiscal crisis by increasing taxes. He opposes further stimulus spending because it will simply increase the debt. But he does suggest reforms that would help – most of which would require a significant withering away of the state. He proposes that the government give every person an annual voucher for health care, provided that the total cost not exceed 10 per cent of GDP. (U.S. health care now consumes 16 per cent of GDP.) He suggests the replacement of all current federal taxes with a single consumption tax of 18 per cent. He calls for government-sponsored personal retirement accounts, with the government making contributions only for the poor, the unemployed and people with disabilities.
Without drastic reform, Prof. Kotlikoff says, the only alternative would be a massive printing of money by the U.S. Treasury – and hyperinflation.
As former president Bill Clinton once prematurely said, the era of big government is over. In the coming years, the U.S. will almost certainly be compelled to deconstruct its welfare state.
Prof. Kotlikoff doesn’t trust government accounting, or government regulation. The official vocabulary (deficit, debt, transfer payment, tax, borrowing), he says, is vulnerable to official manipulation and off-the-books deceit. He calls it “Enron accounting.” He also calls it a lie. Here is an economist who speaks plainly, as the legendary straight-shooting film star Jimmy Stewart did for an earlier generation.
But Prof. Kotlikoff’s economic genre isn’t the Western. It’s the horror story – “and scarier,” one reviewer of his book suggests, than Stephen King.
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