我看是「大家要好好看著2010年的景氣」才是    

按照清崎最近的資料,

最樂觀也絕對拖不過今年下半年。

希望大家能先過個平安的大年夜。

 

《經濟學人雜誌》泡沫化警告: 
 

市場過度依賴政府抒困  現狀無以為繼

 >各國股市低於最高點近25%左右,但是本益比長期平均都高了50%。 

>就算經濟復甦,仍然無法撐住漲高的房市。

>如果實質經濟不改變,各國央行寬鬆貨幣政策無法持續撐住市場。 

>現狀無以為繼。

該圖是目前就業率的狀況。堪稱百年來最慘的狀況。

 

 

Markets are too dependent on

unsustainable government stimulus.

Something’s got to give   Alamy/Shutterstock

THE effect of free money is remarkable. A year ago investors were panicking and there was talk of another Depression. Now the MSCI world index of global share prices is more than 70% higher than its low in March 2009. That’s largely thanks to interest rates of 1% or less in America, Japan, Britain and the euro zone, which have persuaded investors to take their money out of cash and to buy risky assets.

For all the panic last year, asset values never quite reached the lows that marked otherp1.JPG bear-market bottoms, and now the rally has made several markets look pricey again. In the American housing market, where the crisis started, homes are priced at around fair value on the basis of rental yields, but they are overvalued by almost 30% in Britain and by 50% in Australia, Hong Kong and Spain.

Stockmarkets are still shy of their record peaks in most countries. The American market is around 25% below the level it reached in 2007. But it is still nearly 50% overvalued on the best long-term measure, which adjusts profits to allow for the economic cycle, and is on a par with two of the four great valuation peaks in the 20th century, in 1901 and 1966.

Central banks see these market rallies as a welcome side- effect of their policies. In 2008, falling markets caused a vicious circle of debt defaults and fire sales by investors, pushing asset prices down even further. The market rebound was necessary to stabilise economies last year, but now there is a danger that bubbles are being created (see article).

 

原文(全)連結:

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15213157&source=hptextfeature


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