連鎖反應的恐怖平衡,看誰先眨眼誰就輸了  

當日本率先揭發美國債券的危機

全球空頭反彈即將結束

隨著2010年看不到經濟復甦的景象,

聯準會和柏南克將再度犯下2008年的錯誤,

日本金融體系也瀕臨崩潰的臨界點,

日本政府早已準備好隨時啟動救援機制。

一旦日本啟動救援機制,

連帶會影響中、蘇、印、東歐等連鎖效應。

 

當這一切塵埃落定之後,

2012年各種資產將會出現歷史上的最佳買點

 

Global bear rally will deflate

as Japan leads world in sovereign bond crisis

Milton Keynes will be vindicated. Lord Keynes will lose some of his new-found gloss. The Krugman doctrine that we should all spend our way back to health by pushing deficits to the brink of a debt spiral – or beyond the brink – will be seen as dangerous.

 By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 6:15AM GMT 04 Jan 2010

 

Nikkei index - The shocker will be Japan, our Weimar-in-waiting Photo: AFP

The contraction of M3 money in the US and Europe over the last six months will slowly puncture economic recovery as 2010 unfolds, with the time-honoured lag of a year or so. Ben Bernanke will be caught off guard, just as he was in mid-2008 when the Fed drove straight through a red warning light with talk of imminent rate rises – the final error that triggered the implosion of Lehman, AIG, and the Western banking system.

As the great bear rally of 2009 runs into the greater Chinese Wall of excess global capacity, it will become clear that we are in the grip of a 21st Century Depression – more akin to Japan's Lost Decade than the 1840s or 1930s, but nothing like the normal cycles of the post-War era. The surplus regions (China, Japan, Germania, Gulf ) have not increased demand enough to compensate for belt-tightening in the deficit bloc (Anglo-sphere, Club Med, East Europe), and fiscal adrenalin is already fading in Europe. The vast East-West imbalances that caused the credit crisis are no better a year later, and perhaps worse. Household debt as a share of GDP sits near record levels in two-fifths of the world economy. Our long purge has barely begun. That is the elephant in the global tent.

 

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原文(全)連結:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6927923/Global-bear-rally-of-2009-will-end-as-Japans-hyperinflation-rips-economy-to-pieces.html

 

 

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