《有錢人和你想的不一樣》的作者哈福艾克     

2009年二月份就跟Fred說:

「石油在2012年會見到$300美元一桶。

如果有人反駁說這是不可能的,

那這個人根本不清楚這個世界上正在發生什麼事情。」

這些人的財務資訊真是發達!!

鴕鳥心態? 

為什麼政府們不商討高油價的問題

還是不能討論?

>各國政府一直容忍並且避免談到高油價問題。

>政客們整天忙著許多事情,鮮有人會仔細

 研究石油報告的數據是否屬實;反觀全國民眾

 也都盲目相信政府「什麼都應該知道」。

> 列強以往是「不清楚」、「不是當務之急」的方式來回應新聞。

 >現在則是採取「我們有因應計畫,但不便透露」的神秘回應。

> 全球高度懷疑剩餘石油蘊藏量是假的,遠遠不足所公布的數字。

> 當年美國找藉口進攻伊拉克是因為伊國擁有美國迫切需要的石油

 (伊拉克當年既無發展核能計畫與設備,也沒有威脅他國),

 反觀北韓公開擁有並計畫發展毀滅性核武,

 同時也威脅要將其他國家炸到天堂,美國連制裁都沒有。

>各國打算利用「節能減碳」的方式來隱藏

 石油生產量不足的窘境,再拖幾年,

 避免引發高油價時代的來臨。

 

Heads in the Sand? Or, Why Don’t

Governments Talk about Peak Oil?

 

This is a guest post by Shane Mulligan. Shane is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Waterloo, and is working on a book on the security implications of peak oil. Shane writes on The Oil Drum as bioprospector.

There is a train crash about to happen from an energy point of view. But politicians everywhere seem to have entirely missed the scale of the problem… [G]overnments and multilateral agencies have failed to recognize the imminence and scale of the global oil supply crunch, and most of them remain completely unprepared for its consequences.1

Anyone aware of peak oil has had to wonder (at least briefly) why the world's governments seem to be ignoring the issue. The official silence is difficult to fathom in light of the fact that the IEA has decidedly come down on the side of a likely peak by 2030, while Fatih Birol (the Agency's Chief Economist) suggests it's more likely a “plateau” from 2020, or even earlier – a claim recently published in the influential magazine, The Economist.2 As the UK's Energy Research Council points out, “The growing popular debate on ‘peak oil’ has had relatively little influence on conventional policy discourse. For example, the UK government rarely mentions the issue in official publications and …..'does not feel the need to hold contingency plans specifically for the eventuality of crude oil supplies peaking between now and 2020'.”3 The report notes that “the UK is one of many countries that are failing to give serious consideration to this risk.”4 But are governments really ignoring peak oil? Are they unaware of it? Or are they aware and taking steps to deal with it – even while they keep silent on it in public? Indeed, is their silence a policy choice itself?

This research note is an attempt to map out the range of reasons for governments' silence on peak oil. These reasons can be seen along a continuum, from ignorance (“we don't know”), to disbelief, to conspiratorial silence (“we know well, and have plans, but we're not sharing them”). This post surveys some of the more common ideas regarding governments' lack of attention to the issue, in the hope of spurring comments from readers regarding which of the scenarios is more plausible in light of available evidence.

It is worth noting that it is not only governments who have ignored peak oil. As Charlie Hall and John Day point out, population and resource concerns have “largely disappeared, at least until very recently, from most public discussion, newspaper analyses and college curricula. Our general feeling is that few people think about these issues today... Even ecologists have largely shifted their attention away from resources to focus, certainly not inappropriately, on various threats to the biosphere and biodiversity. They rarely mention the basic resource/human numbers equation that was the focal point for earlier ecologists.”5 Governments are not alone, then, in avoiding the issue of resource constraints in general, and peak oil in particular. But given the emergence in the last decade of a well-developed discourse on peak oil, why are they still not talking about it?

Exploring the Range of Possibility

Governments just don’t “get it”

Conclusions

It is clear that peak oil presents an immense challenge in terms of governance, a challenge that seems to have precluded its uptake in policy and governance circles. This does not mean that states and their leaders are not aware of the problem, although many individuals within governments may not be. If governments are aware, as seems likely, their silence may mean that they fear that the public consumption of the scale of the problem may generate more problems than it solves. It may mean that there is a widespread cognitive barrier to examining the problem and prospects, and (in part as a result) they really don't know what to do.

However, it may also be the case that they are well aware of the problem and are indeed pursuing actions to meet it, in a way; but the distasteful nature of the response requires that the real reasons for decisions be hidden from view. The pillage of Iraq and Afghanistan, the wholesale robbery of the public in order to enrich capitalist classes, and the pretence of “saving the planet” - and the polar bears – may all be seen as unfortunate necessities for power structures seeking to preserve themselves under difficult circumstances.

If political actors seem to be acting with an awareness of peak oil, the fact that they don't discuss it is relevant only on that it stands as evidence that not discussing it is part of the policy response. (Ignorance is strength, or some such thing.) But whether sticking our heads in the sand will make the challenges of peak oil any easier for governments – let alone the rest of us – remains to be seen.

原文(全)連結:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6100?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+theoildrum+%28The+Oil+Drum%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

 

國際油價持續走高 低溫還將持續

 

(中央社台北6日綜合外電報導)紐約原油價格第9天上漲,

因為美國東北部的嚴寒天氣可能促使油料需求增加並導致庫

存下降。

美國東北部氣溫預測114以前都將在正常值之下。東北

部消耗全國約4/5的熱燃油。而根據調查,美國蒸餾油庫存可

能第4週減少。蒸餾油包括取暖用的熱燃油及柴油

「這預告油價將很快突破去年的82美元高點,」康乃狄克州

顧問公司Cameron Hanover董事長比特 (PeterBeutel)說。「氣

溫創近幾年來最低,油料需求勢必增加。」

紐約2月原油今天上漲25美分或0.3%,每桶收81.76美元。

一度來到81.99,是1021日盤中82美元以來的最高價。

能源部明天將發布油料庫存,預期蒸餾油將減少185萬桶。

倫敦布倫特2月原油期貨上漲46美分或0.6%,每桶收80.58

美元。一度見到80.56,是2008109來最高價。


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  • 暴力石油派
  • Soros把石油列為商品之首位.

    James Turks書上說:以黃金計價,1971年USD止兌黃金以來,股票與房地產對黃金的比值都有大波動,只有石油與黃金的比值大致穩定.

    以前小時候我還用過煤球,也打過井水. 上一代是用木柴與井水的.
    也許有生之年會親眼看到石油大缺貨,有錢也買不到. 到時候就作個摩登原始人.

  • 暴力石油派
  • 黃金:原油

    黃金:原油 =
    35 USD/troy-ounce : 3 USD/桶 (1970年) =
    3500:300 (? 年) =
    五位數:四位數 (? 年)