就連依靠美國債券起家的                  NEW9.gif

「債券天王」比爾‧葛羅斯

都開始跳「美國」這艘即將沈沒的船隻了,

 

結果竟然還有人在台灣開始推廣

「你現在不用透過基金,可以直接買進美國債券」

我不是說不要買,

但是要清楚什麼時候買,買來做什麼?

而不要盲目掉進下一個「賺價差」的陷阱之中。

要不然讓台灣投資人損失慘重的「連動債」事件

很有可能再次發生。

 

葛羅斯兩千億美元的基金

棄美債買進外國資產


Bill Gross's $200 Billion Fund

Flees U.S. Bonds Into Foreign

Assets

 

Latest data from PIMCO's Total Return bond fund shows how manager Bill Gross has massively shifted his funds' allocation into the foreign bonds of developed countries.

As shown in the table below, taken from the latest fourth quarter Pimco report, 'Non U.S. Developed' debt has jumped to 16% of the portfolio vs. just 3% the quarter before. That's an enormous shift in exposure given that it happend over just three months for this $200 billion fund.

Furthermore, he's slashed his exposure to both U.S. 'Government-Related' (to 32% from 48%) and 'Mortgage' (to 17% from 22%) securities. 'Net Cash Equivalents' meanwhile spiked to 8% of the fund vs. 2% in September. It's pretty clear Mr. Gross expects a rocky road ahead for U.S. fixed income:

PIMCO Q4 Total Return Fund Report: While PIMCO does not expect the Fed to tighten any time soon, there is still the question of how negatively markets will react as the Fed winds down its unorthodox policies that were designed to inject liquidity into the financial system. These policies include the Fed’s program of purchasing mortgage-backed securities.

...

The current environment is characterized by a high level of policy uncertainty and relatively rich valuations for many fixed income assets. This setting argues for caution in terms of overall risk exposure in portfolios, but PIMCO believes there are still a number of prudent strategies available to enhance potential

Emerging Markets and Currency – PIMCO plans to take exposure to high quality EM credits such as Mexico, Brazil, Korea and Russia, which have low levels of debt relative to the size of their economies. We also will look to take positions in select EM currencies, such as Brazil and China, anticipating that faster growth in these economies should allow their currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar.

原文(全)連結:

http://www.businessinsider.com/vincent-fernando-bill-gross-fleeing-into-foreign-bonds-2010-1

 

通貨膨脹的陰影威脅著債券投資者

Inflation threat looms for bond investors

If there’s one question that dominates the investment outlook for the next few years, it’s the question of inflation. If you think that inflation is set to roar, bonds are trash and bonds with long maturities of 10 years or more qualify as particularly toxic waste. On the other hand, if you think that inflation is going to subside, bonds are your best friends and long bonds are an especially good deal.

So which is it going to be? The conventional line of thought is that inflation is likely to remain comatose for the foreseeable future because unemployment is so high and demand is so weak. But that may be too optimistic. John Hussman of Hussman Funds in Maryland delivers an insightful look at the causes of inflation in his weekly market comment. He argues that inflation is set to roar in the second half of this decade and forecasts that the U.S. consumer price index will roughly double over the next 10 years.

Hussman argues his case well. He shows that there has been little correlation over the past half century between growth in monetary base and inflation. On the other hand there has been a tight and dependable relationship between growth in federal spending and inflation. “The primary determinant of inflation is not monetary policy but fiscal policy,” Hussman asserts.

Given the massive amounts of government spending moving through the pipeline, it appears at least plausible that inflation will kick in viciously and surprise people who are buying long bonds with yields of under 4%. Hussman has his own fund tilted toward inflation-protected bonds and short-term Treasuries.Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2010/01/19/inflation-threat-looms-for-bond-investors.aspx#ixzz0dAZ9yaF0
The Financial Post is now on Facebook. Join our fan community today.


原文(全)連結:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2010/01/19/inflation-threat-looms-for-bond-investors.aspx

 


FrederickWang 發表在 痞客邦 PIXNET 留言(8) 人氣()


留言列表 (8)

發表留言
  • 路人甲
  • 如果一位上班族年薪固定,他的負債金額超過七年所得總額,他的作保金額超過五十年所得總額. 他家裡的祖產淨值是他年收入的四倍.

    你還敢借錢給他嗎 ? 你還敢賣東西給他而收他的支票嗎 ?



  • steve
  • 2000億美元實在是恐怖的數目啊!
  • 小茜
  • 有部影片需要大家協助翻譯,應該很有參考價值

    這是我在網路上看到的討論話題,是放在video.google.com網站上的ㄧ部'影片,po上去的時間也有三年了,應該跟聯準會的成立或是運作有關係,片名是America:Freedom to Fascism,由於自己的英文較差,懇請好心的能人志士在看過之後,若確有其參考價值,請協助翻譯,或是打上中文字幕,好讓更多的人可以受惠好嗎??
  • 暴力石油派
  • 面子與裡子

    美國對外還可以再獨霸四十年以上.
    但是對內,美國內部利益如何分配 ? 那就是美國的家務事了.

    美國現在只是沒面子,裡子還是世界第一.
    如果撕破臉回到七十年前的叢林法則,只有美國能搶的到足夠的石油.

    美國糧食大量出超.
    日德中的糧食都嚴重不足,一封鎖就得挨餓.

    光憑石油與糧食這兩點,美國就必勝.

    英法以聯軍在蘇伊士運河危機(1956)被美國略微施壓就不戰而敗.
    日德聯軍在二次大戰中被美國打敗(1945),到現在都還被美軍佔領中(協防比較好聽)

    好像只剩俄中還沒被美國打敗.
    但是海上航道被美國掌控,搶到石油也會被半路欄截.

  • 拔鵝毛
  • 美國企業佔政府稅收 9%, 關稅佔 1%.
    這就是清崎所說的B, I 與S, E 的不同.

    嬰兒潮退休會明顯降低 social security 的收入. 而 income tax 與 payroll tax也會因工作人口比例下降兒同步下降.
    等著看.  一定很有看頭.


    Individual income taxes 45%
    Social Security and other payroll tax 39%
    Corporation income taxes 9%
    Customs duties (tariff) 1%
    others 6%
    Grand total of receipts of Federal Goverment in fiscal year 2010 = 100%
  • 拔鵝毛
  • Greece Outlaws Cash Transactions Above 1500 Euros, Unveils New Taxes

    Greece Outlaws Cash Transactions Above 1500 Euros, Unveils New Taxes

    Saturday, February 13, 2010

    Greece Outlaws Cash Transactions Above 1500 Euros, Unveils New Taxes

    In an attempt to rein in the shadow economy and collect more tax revenue, Greece outlaws cash transactions greater than 1500 Euros. Please consider Greek Finance Minister unveils tax reform, wage policy.

    "From 1. Jan. 2011, every transaction above 1,500 euros between natural persons and businesses, or between businesses, will not be considered legal if it is done in cash. Transactions will have to be done through debit or credit cards"

    "There's tax relief for incomes up to 40,000 (euros)"

    "Taxable income based on the new scales will include capital gains from the short-term trading of stocks"

    "Deposits in banks outside Greece are exempted from audits of their origin if they are repatriated within six months of the passing of the tax bill and are taxed with a 5 percent rate"

    "Wages of board members in unlisted state companies will fall by 50 percent"

    "The budget bill for allowances and compensations will be cut by 10 percent"
    Buy It Now

    Everyone in Greece will quickly figure out that the time to make major purchases is now. So expect to see sales plunge starting January 1, 2011 as demand for everything priced above 1500 euros shifts forward.

    New 40% Tax Rate

    In addition, attempts to collect more sales taxes (VAT), Greece to levy 40% tax rate on more earners.
    Greece will lower the current 75,000 euro income threshold that is subject to a 40 percent tax rate as part of reforms to urgently boost government revenues, the country's finance minister said on Monday.

    "The 40 percent tax rate will be applied on income levels that are lower than what is the case today, but there will also be intermediate rates that will provide relief for low and middle incomes," Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told Ta Nea newspaper in an interview.

    He said that as a result of the tax changes, the biggest burden would be felt by a small percentage of tax payers as 95 percent of earners report incomes below 30,000 euros a year.
    Retirement Age, Fuel Taxes Rise

    Please consider Greece raises retirement age and fuel taxes a day ahead of nationwide civil service strike.

    Prime Minister George Papandreou told a cabinet meeting that the reforms “must go ahead now … with greater speed.”

    “Our primary duty now is to save the economy and reduce the debt, aiming to do so through the fairest possible solutions that will protect — as far as that is possible — the weaker and middle classes,” said Papandreou, who is to meet in Paris with French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday ahead of a European Union summit the following day.

    The new tax bill, Papaconstantinou said, will increase the burden on the rich while easing taxation for those on low incomes. The top income bracket which will be taxed by the maximum 40 percent will be expanded to include incomes of over euro 60,000 a year, from the current euro 75,000 threshold.

    Papaconstantinou said that public consultation over the tax bill continued, and that there could be changes, but that any amendments would be based on the broad principles outlined in the draft.

    He confirmed plans to freeze public sector hirings and wages, while cutting bonuses or stipends by 10 percent, a move he said would trim between euro18 and euro345 euros off monthly salaries. The stipend cut will also apply to those of the prime minister, ministers and other high-ranking ministry officials.

    “We all know that the civil service salary system is one full of injustices, that lacks any central logic and has evolved with successive bonus payments,” Papaconstantinou said. “We are committed to have a unified payment system.”

    He also said all Greeks must collect receipts in order to qualify for the income tax-free amount of euro12,000 — an attempt to crack down on widespread tax evasion, where vendors under-declare their income by not giving receipts. Cash registers will have to be installed everywhere, including kiosks found on practically every Greek street, and food markets.
    Pensions Increase

    In a move that makes little economic sense in light of attempted austerity measures everywhere else, Greece to grant pension increases of 1.5 pct.
    "All pensions will increase by 1.5 percent," Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said in a television interview.

    The government did not intend to raise the nation's top 40 percent income tax rate as part of measures to shore up its finances, he said.
    I have little faith this will work because revenue projections are sketchy and austerity measures will undoubtedly plunge Greece into a severe recession, if not depression.

    Will Greece have the resolve to cut more if necessary? Will France and Germany pony up after a "good faith" try by Greece?

    In light of Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker's Grecian Bluff, there are still more questions than answers. The EU simply has no plans if Greece fails.


    Mike "Mish" Shedlock
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
  • 轉載
  • commercial real estate

    The Guardian UK reports :

    The 2nd phase of the real estate collapse is upon us. It is very much bigger than the sub-prime crisis. Together with the resetting of the ARMs, the commercial real estate collapse is going to bankrupt even more banks. As many as 3000 banks will go under instead of the 500+ mentioned by the FDIC.

    America’s fragile high street banks are bracing themselves for a fresh financial crunch as a wave of commercial property mortgages go sour on offices, shops and factories, causing losses of up to USD 300 B (GBP 192 B) hitting nearly 3,000 small- and medium-sized financial institutions.

    A congressional oversight panel charged with scrutinising the Obama administration’s bailout efforts has warned that USD 1.4 T of loans covering commercial premises will reach maturity between year 2011 and year 2014.
    After a plunge in property prices, nearly half of these loans are underwater, with borrowers owing more than their underlying property is worth.

    An analysis by the panel found that 2,988 of America’s 8,100 banks have potentially dangerous exposure to commercial property loans. The impact could damage hopes of a US economic recovery and could cause a further squeeze in the availability of credit to consumers and businesses.

    “Are we arguing that this is a serious problem that we need to get in front of? The answer is yes,” said Elizabeth Warren, chairman of the oversight panel. “It’s like throwing a handful of sand into the economic recovery.” She said that if banks see that their commercial property liabilities are mounting, they will hold back on lending elsewhere: “They’ll tend to husband their money so that it’s not available for small business loans.”

    Although Wall Street banks have made a swift recovery as shares and bond markets look ahead to a long-term economic recovery, prospects remain cloudy for small-town institutions in the US heartland, hit by ongoing credit card defaults and unemployment among customers. Last year, 140 US banks failed and had to be rescued by federal regulators. Already this year, 16 have been seized by the authorities, a rate that points to a similarly high total in year 2010.

    Defaults on residential mortgages played a key role in sparking the original global financial crisis as hundreds of thousands of US homes went into foreclosure and Wall Street panicked over the diminishing value of complex mortgage-backed securities. Commercial property loans have taken longer to go sour but are emerging as a slow-burning problem.

    Many of the problematic commercial mortgages were written at the peak of the property boom. Since then, the economic downturn has caused small businesses to fail, with shops and offices falling vacant. A rising unemployment rate reflects less need for space by companies.

    “You have declining values, rising vacancy rates and a decline in renewals on leases,” said Bert Ely, an independent US banking analyst. “In some markets, new commercial real estate is still coming on line as construction projects finish up.”

    He said the issue was particularly acute for regional banks that specialise in lending to local businesses: “Relatively speaking, it’s a bigger problem for smaller banks than larger ones. The larger banks tend to be a little bit more diversified in their loans.”
  • 暴力石油派
  • Japan

    日本豐田汽車社長到美國國會出席聽証會,証明誰才是真正的老大.


    日本不借錢(買公債)給老大的下場, 豐田汽車案只是開始.
    日本在二次大戰中海空軍被老大徹底擊潰, 聯合艦隊全軍覆歿.

    日本無條件投降65年之後第七艦隊司令部仍在東京灣外側橫須賀港與日本精英長相左右.

    協防只是比較好聽而已.
     
【 X 關閉 】

【PIXNET 痞客邦】國外旅遊調查
您是我們挑選到的讀者!

填完問卷將有機會獲得心動好禮哦(注意:關閉此視窗將不再出現)

立即填寫取消