銀價即將噴出                  

l 我們必須開始接受銀價漲至$50美元的狀況。

 如果無法在2010年到達，那麼我預計

 最遲2011年就會看到這個價格。

Silver Looks Ready to Soar

April 1, 2010 – Everything is lining up for silver, which looks ready to soar.  The catalyst to launch silver like a rocket may very well turn out to be last week’s CFTC hearing, which revealed the huge naked short position in the precious metal markets. 

In my annual forecast for 2010, I said: “We need to start thinking about silver hurdling above $50.  If it doesn’t happen in 2010, this important event – which is unimaginable to many – will I expect happen in 2011.”  The following chart suggests that my forecast is still on target.

原文（全）連結：

http://www.fgmr.com/silver-looks-ready-to-soar.html

貴重金屬即將被嚴重軋空

l 為什麼各國要聯合起來操縱金價？

 因為唯有「價值不會改變」的東西才能被當成「真錢」，

 同時也是累積財富的基礎。各國為了自由地發行通貨

 （印鈔票），因此極力避免人民蓄積真錢，反而鼓吹

 並教育他們使用政府自己發行的人為紙鈔。

l 各國以為自己擁有（曾經買進）的黃金，是目前賣方

 所擁有的五倍之多。

l 如果以放空股票為例，表示有五個人做多各買進了

 一張股票，但是賣方只有一張股票。

The Coming Precious Metals Short Squeeze

by John Rubino on March 30, 2010

With the gold price suppression scheme apparently breaking open — see this article and this interview — the question becomes when, not if, holders of futures contracts will start demanding physical delivery. Most will discover that the metal isn’t there, which will, ahem, unsettle the commodity and currency markets.

This impending bullion bank disaster is a victory for GATA and its allies, who have been tilting at this windmill for what seems like forever. The Collapse of the Dollar, for instance, contains a long chapter titled the “The Great Central Bank Short Squeeze” in which James Turk, writing in 2004, lays out the evidence for central bank gold manipulation and makes some predictions about what we’re likely to see when the scam is exposed:

One question which I haven’t yet addressed is why central banks would bother with gold’s exchange rate in the first place. Here’s why: Because gold is money, it is one of the yardsticks by which the world’s currencies—and the central banks which manage them—are measured. When gold’s exchange rate is low relative to the dollar and euro, central banks appear to be doing a good job of keeping inflation down and the value of their fiat currencies up. So part of the central banks’ motivation has no doubt been to keep exchange rates at favorable levels – by keeping gold undervalued – thus making their currencies and themselves look good.

As for why central bank manipulation of gold’s exchange rate portends a dramatic spike in gold’s exchange rate, let’s revisit Chapter eight’s brief explanation of how central banks lend their gold to private sector bullion banks, which then sell it on the open market. Because the bullion banks have promised to eventually return the borrowed gold to the central banks, they, in effect are “short” gold. That is, at some point in the future they are obligated to buy gold in order to repay to the central banks. The bullion banks thus benefit when gold is available at a low exchange rate, and are hurt, potentially very seriously, when gold rises.

By the end of 2002, I estimate that the amount of gold that central banks had loaned out was at least 12,000 tonnes, or about 385.8 million ounces. That’s almost five times the world’s annual gold production, worth about $160 billion. If the banks have borrowed this gold at an average of $350 ($11.25gg), and gold rises to $400 ($12.86/gg) (leaving the euro out of this equation for simplicity), the bullion banks are looking at a loss of $50 times 385.8 million ounces, or $19 billion. If the banks borrowed at $300 ($9.64/gg) on average, they’re facing a potential loss of $38 billion, more than enough to bankrupt some of the more aggressive players.

As the cost of acquiring gold begins to rise, the bullion banks might be tempted to cut their losses by covering their shorts (i.e. buying back their gold) en mass. In the stock market this is known as a short squeeze, and it often results in a buying panic, in which everyone heads for the exits at once, sending the price of the security in question through the roof. For the bullion banks the short squeeze is a terrifying prospect because of the potential losses they might incur. For the central banks, a short squeeze in gold is equally terrifying  because the result will be, in effect, a massive devaluation of their currencies versus gold, potentially undermining the monetary status quo they try so hard to maintain.

In any event, the failure of one or more bullion banks (remember, these are among the world’s biggest financial institutions) might threaten the entire global financial system, a prospect that no doubt has central bankers shaking in their boots.

Viewed this way, the recent gyrations in the gold market make perfect sense. When free individuals, observing the debasement of the world’s fiat currencies, begin to bid up the exchange rate of the one money that’s immune from debasement, the bullion banks run to Washington (or Paris or London) for a bailout, and the central banks oblige by pushing gold back down. But the game is just about up. The bullion banks’ short positions have reached unmanageable proportions, and gold’s exchange rate is surging into the danger zone. A short squeeze is coming, and for the world’s central banks (and bullion banks’ shareholders) it will be a disaster. But for those who value and understand gold’s enduring role as money, it will be a classic case of poetic justice.

原文（全）連結：

http://dollarcollapse.com/articles/the-coming-precious-metals-short-squeeze/