除了金融海嘯(銀行與政府的壞帳)之外,           

還有另外一種人禍—

金融風暴(通貨膨脹)

正虎視眈眈地等著…


原本$55的東西,已經漲到$65

(漲幅20%);

紅豆湯一碗去年還是$30元,

先漲到$45,

現在已經是$50元了

(漲幅66%)。

 

通貨膨脹的陰影籠罩全球

美元已經來到「哈凡斯坦」臨界值

 如果物價上漲速度超過印鈔票的速度,

民眾就會開始覺得「錢不夠用」,

所有百姓都會知道通貨膨脹發生了;

 就在惡性通膨前夕的這個階段,

通貨流通速度會趨緩,

而且因為通貨膨脹的關係,

通貨會發生「假性萎縮」

許多專家也會誤判 

 以為發生了所謂的「通貨緊縮」;

 此時稱為「哈凡斯坦臨界值」,

紀念當時德國威瑪政權時的央行總裁。

他就是在此時決定提高印鈔速度與數量,

想要一舉超越通貨膨脹的速度。

結果一發不可收拾…

 此時唯一就是停止印鈔票,

回收市面上過剩的通貨。

但這麼做就要面臨經濟衰退,

甚至發生經濟大蕭條的後果。

只有極少數的人為此有所準備。

大部分美國民眾都認為會發生

美國式的經濟大蕭條(1930年代),

因此都認為穩定的工作比較重要;

 如果發生德國式的經濟大蕭條,

那麼唯有靠黃金與白銀才有辦法度過。


Hyperinflation Watch – April 20, 2010


Hyperinflation Looms – The Dollar Arrives at Its ‘Havenstein Moment’

April 20, 2010 – There is an interesting article in Canada’s Globe & Mail about the lack of growth in the US money supply.  Ignoring for the moment that the quantity of dollars in circulation is significantly underreported, it observes:

“The money supply in the United States is doing something that almost never happens: it’s shrinking, after taking into account inflation.  Similar episodes in the past have usually been scary times for investors. Declines in the amount of money in circulation have coincided with recessions, and some analysts looking at the current trend say it is a harbinger of trouble. Despite signs that the U.S. is in recovery, they worry that the money supply numbers indicate the economy remains vulnerable to the feared double-dip downturn, or is close to experiencing deflation.”

I agree with the first half of this proposition about a renewed economic downturn, but not the second.  In fact, rather than deflation, the dollar is moving ever closer to hyperinflation. 

How is deflation possible when crude oil prices have more than doubled since their post-Lehman crash low?  Or more broadly, how can there be deflation when the price index of 19 commodities compiled by the Commodity Research Bureau rose 47% during this same period?  It cannot of course, which means there is no deflation. 

The ongoing decline in the purchasing power of the dollar has been masked by wealth destruction as over-priced assets like houses fall back to realistic levels.  There is also the problem that the mainstream media broadcasts only the government calculated CPI, which is an inaccurate measure of the dollar’s eroding purchasing power. 

As John Williams of www.shadowstats.com notes: “Over the decades, the BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] has altered the meaning of the CPI from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living, to something that no longer reflects the constant-standard-of-living concept.”  John reports that his “SGS-Alternate Consumer Inflation Measure, which reverses gimmicked changes to official CPI reporting methodologies back to 1980, rose to about 9.5%” in March from a year ago.

So the Globe & Mail article is wrong about deflation, but I am not drawing attention to it just because I agree that “the economy remains vulnerable to the feared double-dip downturn”.  Instead, this article unintentionally offers compelling evidence that the dollar is approaching hyperinflation. 

The so-called “shrinking” money supply that arises when adjusting for the loss of purchasing power from inflation is a characteristic portending imminent hyperinflation.  Let’s call it a ‘Havenstein moment’, named after the ill-fated president of the Reichsbank who presided over the destructive hyperinflation that devastated Weimar Germany.

I first explained this phenomenon in September 2007 and questioned then whether the dollar would eventually hyperinflate because Ben Bernanke would follow the footsteps of Herr Havenstein.  I quoted an insightful section from Murray Rothbard’s excellent book, The Mystery of Banking, that explicitly explains the consequences of the inflation-adjusted money supply.  Here is the relevant part of that quote:

“When prices are going up faster than the money supply, the people begin to experience a severe shortage of money, for they now face a shortage of cash balances relative to the much higher price levels. Total cash balances are no longer sufficient to carry transactions at the higher price.”

As the Globe & Mail observes, these circumstances prevail today.  Prices of goods and services are rising, but as it warns, the quantity of dollars in circulation is “shrinking, after taking into account inflation.”  This “shortage of money” is being widely misinterpreted as deflation, which is exactly what happened in Weimar Germany shortly before the Reichsmark was swooped up in its hyperinflationary whirlwind.

Rothbard provides his usual brilliant insight to explain what happens once the “Havenstein moment’ is reached.  There are two alternatives. 

“If the government tightens its own belt and stops printing (or otherwise creating) new money, then inflationary expectations will eventually be reversed, and prices will fall once more – thus relieving the money shortage by lowering prices. But if government follows its own inherent inclination to counterfeit and appeases the clamor by printing more money so as to allow the public’s cash balances to ‘catch up’ to prices, then the country is off to the races.  Money and prices will follow each other upward in an ever-accelerating spiral, until finally prices ‘run away’…[i.e., hyperinflate]” 

Weimar Germany took the second alternative.

The dollar has now reached its ‘Havenstein moment’.  Will policymakers follow the prudent advice of Murray Rothbard and ‘tighten its belt’?  Or like Herr Havenstein, will Mr. Bernanke continue to ‘print’? 

No need to ponder these two alternatives.  The Federal Reserve must ‘print’, for one reason.  Despite the noble goals assigned to it in textbooks and offered in Congressional hearings, the Federal Reserve exists for only one reason – to make sure the federal government gets all the dollars it wants to spend, which consequently has put the dollar on a hyperinflationary course.

Spending by the federal government is out of control, causing it to borrow record amounts.  The money to fund this growing mountain of debt must come from savings or ‘printing’, and the sad fact is that there is not enough accumulated savings in the known universe to satisfy the spending aspirations of Washington’s politicians.  So beyond what it can collect from taxpayers and extract from the world’s savings pool, the dollars the federal government is spending can only come from one place – the ‘printing press’, which in the prevailing monetary system means bookkeeping entries of the Federal Reserve. 

This process of creating new dollars ‘out of thin air’ creates the hyperinflation, which the ‘Havenstein moment’ indicates is near.  Sadly, like Weimar Germany, few people are prepared for this impending destruction of the dollar, but the remedy is simple – as much as practical, avoid the dollar.  Own physical gold and physical silver instead.

原文(全)連結:

http://www.fgmr.com/hyperinflation-looms-dollar-arrives-at-its-havenstein-moment.html

 

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