聰明的錢都在放空                      

希臘、西班牙、葡萄牙、和日本

大家要小心了,

原本在天邊的烏雲

現在已經罩頂了。

敏感的人已經聞到了暴風雨的味道

路上也開始吹起了濕熱的風…

 

三年前(真快!)次級房貸危機

你有藉口說「來不及準備」

「根本搞不清楚就被金融海嘯打到」等。

這次又來了,

失業?關門倒閉?經濟蕭條?

反正光是從金額來看,

會比2007~2008的金融海嘯

大兩倍以上

 

大家趕緊加速打造自己的財務方舟,

真的迫在眉睫了。

先從退出股市、基金、與投資性的房市;

有在開公司的,能先進貨囤貨趕快做;

聽得懂,也懂其中道理的人,更進一步就是

手上千萬不要持有「定存」以及「每月還本」的保險;

雖然要買黃金和白銀以備不時之需,

但是千萬別去銀樓亂買一通。

但是這次國家違約倒帳風波

和2007次級房貸不同—

規模與影響範圍大太多了


StreetTalk With Bob Lenzner

Smart Money Is Short Debt Of Greece, Spain, Portugal And Japan

Robert Lenzner, 04.30.10, 05:00 PM EDT

But the sovereign debt crisis won't be another subprime meltdown.  

Smart money went short the bonds of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland when the price of buying protection against default was cheap, some weeks ago. The price of buying insurance against default has spiked now that the crisis is full blown and a $100 billion bailout of Greece is not a done deal.

The Smart Money, mostly hedge funds thinking ahead, were betting on the historic findings that over 800 years severe recessions are always followed by sovereign defaults. Smart Money had studied This Time is Different, a history of financial crises by Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff and his co-author, Carmen Reinhart.

 

You want perspective on more than 2008-09, you have to read this book. One clear finding of Reinhart/ Rogoff is that sovereign debt default is in “a cyclical trough” based on a chart published by Hedgeye Risk Management this week. The percent of countries in default or restructuring is about the same as in 1930 as the depression took full force.

 

pic.JPG 

 

Smart Money is worried. It has seen the need for bailouts segue from a few billion dollars for a single hedge fund, LongTerm Capital in 1998, to trillions on behalf of banks, insurance companies and quasi-public institutions like Fannie Mae ( FNM - news - people ) to prevent an economic meltdown equal or worse than the 1930s. European Central Banks needed 27.5% of total European GDP to staunch the wounds, according to Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB chairman, at the Council on Foreign Relations this week. “The transmission of shocks were moving rapidly every half-day. There was no textbook to tell us what to do,” he said.

Nor was he forthcoming about the odds of a deal for Greece. At stake in the first instance are European bank loans to Greece ($190 billion), Portugal ($240 billion) and Spain ($840 billion). That's a nifty $1.2 trillion exposure to the economically vulnerable European nations. Faced by French banks like Societe Generale, German banks and British banks as well. A big problem, but not of the proportion of the subprime crisis, which morphed into prime mortgages, LBO loans, credit card and automobile debt--making Citigroup ( C - news - people ), Bank of America ( BAC - news - people ), Fannie Mae, Freddie Max, WAMU and others in effect insolvent. Still, a challenge to European bank balance sheets and further deterioration in European stock markets could be destabilizing.

 

 


原文(全)連結:

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/30/sovereign-debt-subprime-smart-money-markets-greece-lenzner-streettalk.html

 

 

 

看更多...


fig010.gif  金融海嘯本尊現身!(3)

fig010.gif 金融海嘯本尊現身!(2)

fig010.gif 金融海嘯本尊現身!(1)

 

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  • 福羅雄
  • 立天大啥時要再到高雄阿~~
  • nervlee
  • 此篇文章應該是指像1OZ幻彩條塊,1OZ鴻運金幣與1臺兩金鑽條塊等保證999.9純金應是購買的標的,仿間的飾金才是不能購入的
  • 路人甲
  • 當幸福來敲門

    英,法,德,日 四國是掌握工業文明核心基礎科技的真正列強
    如果這四國都發生海嘯 就表示國王快要掀桌子歸零了 這就是王老師所說的瞬間機會之窗
    當幸福來敲門  您準備好了嗎  機會百年一次  
  • 小魚
  • 請問掀桌子是怎個掀法?

    發行新貨幣?

    台灣也會受到很大的波及嗎

  • LKK
  • 德國的舊記錄是 舊馬克去掉十二個零 變成新馬克
    1:100,000,000,000 
    :-(
  • nakayamashoei
  • 辛巴威更棒,100兆(1的後面"15"個"零")的鈔票,直接就是廢紙。我還搞了幾張,好提醒自己"皮夾裡的鈔票!不是錢!"有上過課的就知道我的意思!
  • LKK
  • 德國婦女推著滿滿一輛手推車的馬克去市場買菜 路上有強盜把手推車搶走 裡面的的馬克留給原主

    德國婦女直接把馬克放在爐中當燃料燒 
  • frank
  • 紀錄最高的是匈牙利的10垓 21個0
    但是他沒有把21個0寫出來

    因為面額太大 後來又發行1垓的鈔票

    PS:100兆 後面應該是14個0
  • nervlee
  • 黃金今日又上漲了,真希望能看到5000美元/OZ
  • 科學計數法
  • 科學計數法 10**N (N個零) 來表示鈔票面額還蠻方便的
    不然如果找零錢收到一兆 trillion (12個零) 以上的鈔票 還得先查字典 那就得隨身帶字典了
  • 請不要對號入座
  • 為什麼xx會富強

    複選題 請不要對號入座 (xx不止一個)


    正經在路上運貨 他會來搶
    不跟他作生意 他會打你
    跟他作生意賺的比他多 他會打你
    不買他的止痛藥 他會打你
    賺了他的錢想買他的好東西來平衡一下 他不賣 他只肯賣借據
    跟他談好協議 他回頭不肯簽字 可是對他有利的全要你先實行 對他不利的就重談
    錢都被他借走了 他還嫌你拿了他太多借據 要懲罰
    他創立了很多新名辭 新標準 新協議 自己從不遵守
  • 自由人
  • 終於建立了足夠的金銀部位,晚上可以睡好覺了!
  • 週邊有事
  • 日本首相下台 + 朝鮮半島有動靜 + 日本擴大防空識別區 = 週邊有事

    端午以後可能東亞已無法置身事外