約翰‧威廉斯是                                 

Shadowstats.com的創始人,

也是財星500大公司的顧問;

他專門利用最早期的通貨膨脹計算方式

(而不是政府這幾年來一直在改良的方式)

來算出當今的通貨膨脹嚴重程度

幾乎所有重視實際購買力的個人或單位

(羅伯特‧清崎、麥克‧馬隆尼、

各大基金、公司與中小銀行等)

都拿他網站的數據作為改變投資組合的依據。

約翰‧威廉斯專訪

惡性通膨式的經濟大蕭條即將來臨

 

 

你覺得這則新聞重要嗎?

若您覺得對您身邊的親朋好友也很重要,

那麼請盡速將這則新聞轉寄給您身邊的人

讓愛你的人和你愛的人也能儘早做好準備,

免於不必要的金融侵襲!


John Williams: A Hyper-Inflationary Great Depression Is Coming
Source: Tim McLaughlin and Karen Roche of The Gold Report  04/30/2010

ShadowStats' John Williams has done his math and believes his numbers tell the truth. He explains why the U.S. is in a depression and why a "Hyper-Inflationary Great Depression" is now unavoidable. John also shares why he selects gold as a metal for asset conversion in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report.

The Gold Report: John, last December you stated, "The U.S. economic and systemic crisis of the past of the past two years are just precursors to a great collapse," or what you call a "hyper-inflationary great depression." Is this prediction unique to the U.S., or do you feel that other economies face the same fate?

John Williams: The hyper-inflationary portion largely will be unique to the U.S. If the U.S. falls into a great depression, there's no way the rest of the world cannot have some negative economic impact.

TGR: How will the United States' decreased economic power impact global economies? Will the rest of the world survive?

JW: People will find to their happy surprise that they'll be able to survive. Most businesses are pretty creative. The thing is, the U.S. economic activity accounts for roughly half that of the globe. There's no way that the U.S. economy can turn down severely without there being an equivalent, at least a parallel downturn outside the U.S. with its major trading partners.

When I talk about a great depression in the United States, it is coincident with a hyper-inflation. We're already in the deepest and longest economic contraction seen since the Great Depression. If you look at the timing as set by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the arbiter of U.S. recessions, as to whether or not we have one, they've refused to call an end to this one, so far. But assuming you called an end to it back in the middle of 2009, it would still be the longest recession seen since the first down-leg of the Great Depression.

In terms of depth, year-to-year decline in the gross domestic product, or GDP, as reported in the third quarter of 2009, was the steepest annual decline ever reported in that series, which goes back to the late '40s on a quarterly basis. Other than for the shutdown of war production at the end of World War II, which usually is not counted as a normal business cycle, the full annual decline in 2009 GDP was the deepest since the Great Depression. There's strong evidence that we're going to see an intensified downturn ahead, but it won't become a great depression until a hyper-inflation kicks in. That is because hyper-inflation will be very disruptive to the normal flow of commerce and will take you to really low levels of activity that we haven't seen probably in the history of the Republic.

Let me define what I mean by depression and great depression, because there's no formal definition out there that matches the common expectation. Before World War II, economic downturns commonly were referred to as depressions. If you drew a graph of the level of activity in a depression over time, it would show a dip in the economy, and you'd go down and then up. The down part was referred to as recession and the up part as recovery. The Great Depression was one that was so severe that in the post-World War II era, those looking at economic cycles tried to come up with a euphemism for "depression." They didn't want to create the image of or remind people of the 1930s. Basically, they called economic downturns recessions, and most people think of a depression now as a severe recession.

I've talked with people in the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the National Bureau of Economic Research in terms of developing a formal depression definition. The traditional definition of recession—that of two consecutive quarters of inflation-adjusted contraction in GDP—still is a solid one, despite recent refinements. Although there's no official consensus on this, generally, a depression would be considered a recession where peak-to-trough contraction in the economy was more than 10%; a great depression would be a recession where the peak-to-trough contraction was more than 25%.


On a global basis, where the dollar is the world's reserve currency, 80% of currency transactions involve the U.S. dollar. There's going to have to be an overhaul of the global currency system. To gain credibility with the public, the powers that be likely will design a system that has some kind of a tie to gold, but that's purely speculative.

TGR: From a personal investment point of view, you emphasized that this is a time to conserve assets, including gold and other currencies. How else can investors protect themselves?

JW: I like physical gold and silver. I look to gold as a primary hedge. If you can come out of this holding gold, you'll be in a position where you'll be able to take advantage of some extraordinary investment opportunities that will follow. With inflation, real estate is usually a pretty good bet. It tends to hold its value over time. There may be periods of illiquidity, though, and it's not portable. Neither of those limitations is an issue with gold. Maybe gold will become the black market to support U.S. economic activity. It certainly would be the area that people will try to transfer their assets to as time goes along.

You see people now as gold gets to a new high saying, "Oh my goodness, I bought at $200, and I can sell out at $1,100 making a good profit." What people don't realize is that they haven't made a real profit. What they've done is retained the purchasing power of the dollars that they invested in gold, and they've lost proportionately the purchasing power of the amounts left in dollar-denominated paper assets over the same time. Gold is a long-term wealth preserver. Again, where many people are used to an investment environment where they can buy a stock, make a quick profit and then sell, with gold you need to hold on for the long haul as an insurance policy, not as a quick investment.

TGR: Thank you very much for your time.

Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. For more than 25 years he has been a private consulting economist and a specialist in government economic reporting. His analysis and commentary have been featured widely in the popular media both in the U.S. and globally. Mr. Williams provides insight and analysis on his website, www.shadowstats.com.


原文(全)連結:

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/6199

 


FrederickWang 發表在 痞客邦 PIXNET 留言(32) 人氣()


留言列表 (32)

發表留言
  • 小康家庭
  • 謝謝Fred,聽完之後又去買了1英兩1個,不過我也快沒錢再買了,我真的相信這篇文章的可性度只是時間點不明而已,因為政府的總理都是民選,除了讓大量印鈔沒有其它方法。
  • tony
  • 謝謝Fred的口譯

    今天又在新聞上看到客運漲價的新聞
    (台北-->新竹100元-->150元)
    今年以來一直看到物價不斷的上漲

    不過中國經過大幅調薪後,是否就如同mp3裡頭的
    溫和的經濟成長?
  • 小康家庭
  • 請問Fred,這對台灣會有何影響?台灣現在偏中較多,會因此而影響小一點嗎?
  • 理財想法和母親完全相反的人。
  • 請問Fred我和我媽討論了經濟大蕭條和即將通膨的事...
    我媽只回了我一句:反正政府不會坐視不管,他會解決。
    她說:我連錢都沒有聽這些對我來說有什麼幫助嗎?
    那像我這種現在完全沒錢也沒收入還在讀書的人通膨對我會有什麼影響呢??
    沒辦法掌控自己人生感覺真的很糟...
  • FrederickWang
  • #2 希望如此。
    大陸自去年底開始,開始鼓勵人民買黃金與白銀(他們還是共產國家耶!),
    就是預防美元崩盤時對民生所產生的衝擊。

    #3 我認為台灣所受到的衝擊,會比歐美與中國小得多。
    因為我們節儉過活已經一段時日,許多民眾有自己的生意,到處都有銀樓…等,
    靠月薪的白領上班族會很慘,尤其是私營部門的(公家還好)。
    所以為了事先準備,自己先想像一下:
    當人民對鈔票失去信心(例如辛巴威,上網察看影片),民眾如何生活?
    大家應該會怎麼做?你應該如何提前準備?

    #4 這種論調有兩種思維Fred最不苟同的:
    1) 政府(和銀行)根本就是罪魁禍首!
    這次的危機就是因為各國政府為了討好人民,毫無節制亂花錢,累積大量國債所引起的。
    雖然火災有時候可以用火來救,但是水災用水來淹只是會更糟。
    所以債務過高的問題不可能藉著舉更高的債來解決,這好比像是給有毒癮的人吸食更多海洛因一樣,
    暫時延緩症狀,總有一天要算總帳。
    而且,您母親好像忘記了,政府也是由一般人民組成的,
    這些人跟你媽媽一樣,本身沒錢也沒有適當的財務智商,連自己的財務都不健全,怎麼管理一個國家?
    只有逃避現實的人才會盲目相信政府會解決,
    政府有解決台灣城鄉差距嗎?貧富差距嗎(連有錢人的稅都徵收不到)?
    有解決交通混亂的問題嗎?開放牛肉進口的國恥嗎?
    最近的政府只有解決一種問題的能力:就是排除政治界的異己這種能力而已,倒是一直在進步。
    依賴政府?!Fred還是自保為先!

    2) 思想與態度的懶惰最悲哀!
    沒錢只是一種心態而已。在《富爸爸窮爸爸》一書中有說這種藉口實為一種思想上的懶惰。
    我從小就聽長輩們述說80年前的經濟大蕭條時代,台灣人民的上兩代是如何動腦筋發明並利用廢物、
    或者變通各種生活上的事物來熬過那段日子的精彩故事…。
    您母親聽起來已經飽受生活上的挫折與無奈,
    雖然心裡知道你講的有道理,可是自己卻一點辦法也沒有,因此而產生惱怒。
    但是Fred會鼓勵並開導她:「沒錢有沒錢的作法」
    (如果有人連這種觀念都不願意接受,那麼這種人會沒錢真的是長期以來自找的。窮死活該!)
    例如開始跟日常生活相往來的商家洽詢一些以物易物的可能性、將定存換成實體黃金(絕非黃金存摺)、
    兼個差並懇求以黃金支付、跟會並將錢立即變成貴重金屬…等。
    「我在讀書就沒辦法」也是一種思想與精神上的懶惰,基本上都是在想找靠山,在依賴別人的供養。
    假設你有弟妹,忽然哪天父母出了意外亡故,有的人那怕是高中生也會一肩扛起責任擺攤打工賺錢照顧弟妹,
    同時還要兼顧自己的課業與家事,一樣也熬過來了,甚至遙遙領先同儕;
    反觀大部分的人就會尋求政府的協助(這不是壞事),
    但是,萬一這個孩子開始抱怨政府照顧不夠好,社會福利不夠多,滿嘴抱怨自己命不好,
    根本就暴露這個人的心態就是想要把責任推給他人,自己要想過得輕鬆點,認為全世界因為他的不幸而對他都有所虧欠一樣…。
    你可以寫文章賺稿費、打工(溜狗、排隊、顧店同時寫作業)、成立以物易物社團、教育同學、
    或者斗膽利用知識來說服有錢的長輩來投資貴重金屬(等他賺了第一個25%之後請他分你5%)…等。
    自己動動腦筋!!!!!!!!!!(上學的目的原本是要訓練腦筋,怎麼都變成了死腦筋?!)
    台灣的大人與小孩,尤其是學生,思想上真的都是養尊處優,都被寵壞了!
  • 小康家庭
  • 我覺得政府為何要管你?你當你是財團嗎?你有拿錢給政黨嗎?你最重要的是想一想,你大學是否要貸款讀?貸款讀有意義嗎?建議你要知道自己的興趣,不要讀出來做的事別的工作,白花40萬背債,研究所如果只為逃避工作也別唸了,現在銀行想辦法要人民背債,這樣子才能永世勞動你們。
  • 理財想法和母親完全相反的人。
  • 感謝小康家庭先生(小姐?)的回答!
    目前有找到2、3個志同道合的朋友們,希望可以做出一些和其他同學不一樣的事情來。
    當初我媽不準我讀夜校就讓我去念私立日校,雖然我堅持不要但她是監護人所以目前已經負債了...
  • 小康家庭
  • 讀書也是好的,我當年也是亂唸一通,才畢業工作一年,我就知道我不喜歡這份工作,結果接下來找工作都不順利,專業和外語是你最需要的,還有我自從行了清崎的觀念之後,人生改了很多,存款才也沒有不停歸0,是慢慢有增加中,也許你30歲才能体會。做薪水的人,錢存到一定的時又會因很因素又沒了,如失業、家庭。
  • MBO
  • 實體黃金與黃金存摺的差異?

    請問:
    以上大大所言
    "將定存轉換為實體黃金,而非黃金存摺"
    的理由原因為何,請達人釋疑~
  • sharewilliam
  • 實體黃金與黃金存摺

    黃金存摺只是一種數字的代表性,不等同於實體黃金
    最大的差別就在黃金存摺和鈔票沒兩樣,你要多少銀行都可以印給你
    但他們並沒有多少實體的黃金作爲擔保
    (不相信?我上次去公館台銀才買1g的幻彩金塊,他也要我等一個禮拜才拿到貨,公館台銀不曉得有多少人辦黃金存摺賬戶。最近還新推出用美元計價的)

    第二大差異是防止紙幣貶到零
    那時候的黃金存摺基本上已經沒有多少價值了
    如果那時候才說要去台銀提領,我相信會是什麽都領不到
    鈔票變現是廢紙,黃金領不到,存摺上的數字就是看安慰的

    我相信紙幣會有貶到零的那一天,可能是明天,可能是明年,可能是下一次金融海嘯
    如果你不相信或懷疑,那不妨思考一個假設性的問題
    假設紙幣貶到零這件事沒有發生,你握有實體黃金並沒有任何的損失
    假設紙幣貶到零這件事發生了,你握有黃金存摺和握有實體黃金的差別可就大了
    綜合以上的假設,我當然會選擇握有實體黃金
  • MBO
  • 謝謝#10回覆

    感謝 #10 大大的回覆,
    這樣我比較了解了,
    原本我以為台銀說有100 %的準備的,所以應該是黃金存摺與實體黃金並無佘麼差異,
    原來是可能領不到黃金,原來連國營的台銀也不能信任,若這樣的話,還有佘麼是可以信任銀行的!
  • 小魚
  • 你怎麼會選擇兌換1g重的金塊(我沒聽過)

    重量越小不是溢價越高嗎
  • sharewilliam
  • 給#12小魚
    是的。重量越小溢價約高(不過因爲是溢價買進溢價賣出所以其實是一樣的)
    但我兌換1g的金塊是有別的用途,在這裡分享給你
    在《召喚金錢的魔法》一書裏面有提到要打造一個 金錢磁鐵隨身攜帶,可以幫助你吸引錢
    我的金錢磁鐵裏面除了鈔票以外還有黃金,所以1g金塊是用在我的金錢磁鐵上的
    我愛鈔票,但更愛黃金
    很建議你看這本書,為自己打造一個屬於自己的金錢磁鐵
  • 小魚
  • 回13樓

    我看了兩遍還是不懂你的意思

    麥可馬隆尼好像沒有提過"金錢磁鐵"這東西

    功能類似招財貓那樣能招財進寶嗎

    就我記得磁鐵好像只能吸引鐵鈷鎳這三種金屬

    不能吸黃金

  • sharewilliam
  • 囘12摟

    金錢磁鐵 不是麥克馬龍尼說的
    是我從別的書上學到的
    哪一本書我在上面已經有提過咯^^
  • 小康家庭
  • 有人可以指導一下,為何Fred版大說要看辛巴威的例子嗎?台灣的美元外幣存款會變0,但是台灣不會超通膨啊!可能會通貨緊縮吧!萬一美國和大陸都不能出口,那是賺不到錢,和買不到東西有何關連嗎?
  • 妳(你)誤會我的意思了。
    無論是發生超通膨或者是通貨緊縮,
    最嚴重的情況就是「全體民眾對紙鈔失去信心」

    Fred要大家想想(我當然有我的答案):
    商家一旦不收鈔票時,日常生活會變成什麼樣子?
    民眾會產生哪些反應?
    有哪些新行業會誕生?
    哪些行業立即倒閉?
    自己應該做哪些準備?!!

    思路不是很快,或者想不通的朋友
    可以到youtube參考辛巴威超通膨相關影片,
    瞭解沒有鈔票的日子是怎麼過的,
    並且民眾會有哪些反應。

    FrederickWang 於 2010/06/16 10:32 回覆

  • LKK
  • 3kg白米=600g豬肉=300g牛肉=N個雞蛋
    以物易物
    數學不能太差
  • 小康家庭
  • 謝謝Fred版大的提醒,我上網找資料之後,目前更正一下我的想法,以後全世界都是注意國債問題,梘台灣的國債已經破表,現在因公債有人買尚沒問題,但以後沒人買,政府也只好印鈔票了,美國只是加速大家思考這問題,重點在台灣也是赤字預算而且沒黃金準備,因此以後可以發生像辛巴威的情形一樣,所以買黃金、白銀是為了保值和保命。不知這樣是否是Fred版大想表達的意思?請大家指導一下。
  • 小魚

  • 日期 新臺幣券、輔幣券及 硬幣、硬輔幣 黃金準備 外匯美金準備
    外島地名券發行數額 發行數額

    99/03/31 1,114,637,650,650.00 66,671,252,521.00 461,152,700,869.62 653,484,949,780.38



    如果央行真的有那麼多的黃金(佔總數額的42%)


    那超通膨的機率應該很低

  • LKK
  • 依比例 PIIG的黃金儲備比英國多幾倍 比日本多幾十倍
    台灣不產石油  台灣糧食自給率<50%  自給率比日本南韓還低


    60年前祖父母輩吃番薯簽 用煤球的日子 就是萬一發生超通澎的一個模擬
    豬油炒飯是天賜美食 一年三節才能有油水 婚喪喜慶才能大吃大喝的日子 不過是50年前的記憶

  • 訪客
  • 匯豐銀行﹙HSBC﹚裁員

    【明報】匯豐銀行宣布在香港裁員3000人,近日展開首階段大規模裁員,開始發「大信封」。

    據悉,風險管理、企業融資、資訊科技及環球市場等部門首當其衝,陸續有過百員工接信。雖然有指後勤職員是被裁的「高危一族」,但有前線負責融資及市場部的部門即時「消失」,有匯豐員工形容公司內部人心惶惶。

    匯豐發言人表示,市場消息不置評,僅稱裁職計劃正在進行。由於裁減職位涉及不同職級層面,重整架構進度各異,故難以提供確實受影響員工數目。


    匯豐集團行政總裁歐智華周三公布第三季業績時承認,香港區的裁員行動數日前開始。昨日有匯豐員工向本報證實,大規模裁員行動正式展開,位於中環總行、大角嘴、太古城及旺角等多個部門,均有員工即時被裁走。


    中午開會 下午即捲舖蓋

    據了解,昨晨匯豐各部門主管開始向下屬派大信封,有部門先「開大會」由主管安撫下屬,詎料隨即立刻逐一接見員工派信。有員工向本報表示,裁員行動來得非常突然,「有同事中午還在開會,下午就要捲舖蓋走人,事前毫無先兆」。他表示,由於昨日收到「大信封」的員工來自多個部門,因此公司內部人心惶惶。有職員指被炒員工起碼逾200人。

    消息稱,匯豐員工大致會被分成4種「命運」﹕

    一)平安過渡;

    二)部門「消失」獲調配至其他部門;

    三)即時離職,獲一定賠償;

    四)須在一至兩個月內,自行在公司內部尋找其他部門空缺,如在緩衝期仍未求得一職,便被裁,而且賠償額亦會較即時被裁員工為少。



    有匯豐企業融資部的員工透露,昨晨獲主管通知,其部門即時「瓦解」,30多名員工受到牽連,部分人要轉職至其他部門,亦有人要即時離職。


    聘快遞協助 門外不見員工捧紙箱

    太古城匯豐分部亦成為重災區,有員工透露擁有20人的環球金融及市場部即時消失,所有員工即時離職,但記者昨日在太古城一座外觀察,未見有匯豐員工拿着大紙箱,據悉是由於被裁員工均電召快遞公司協助收拾,而且匯豐更主動「出錢送人走」。

    香港銀行業僱員協會副總幹事譚建新表示,昨日收到會員反映已收到匯豐解僱信,但目前仍未掌握被裁員工數目。協會主席李麗貞亦指出,被裁員工有來自資訊科技及財資管理部,主要向表現欠佳員工「開刀」。她認為,部分員工可能獲資方安排「肥雞餐」離職,暫未收到會員求助,呼籲受影響僱員尋求工會協助。


    議員批措施無良 促盡企業責任
  • 訪客
  • GEAB N°66 is available! Red alert / Global systemic crisis – September-October 2012: When the trumpets of Jericho ring out seven times for the world before the crisis


    - Public announcement GEAB N°66 (June 19, 2012) -

    inShare.7

    The progression of world events unfolds in accordance with the anticipations mapped out by LEAP/E2020 during these last few quarters. Euroland has finally come out from its political torpor and short-termism since Francois Hollande’s election (1) as France’s president and the Greeks have just confirmed their willingness to resolve their problems within Euroland (2) thus contradicting all the Anglo-Saxon media and Euro sceptics’ “forecasts”. From now on, Euroland (in fact the EU minus the United Kingdom) will therefore be able to move forward and create a true project of political integration, economic efficiency and democratization over the 2012-2016 period as LEAP/E2020 anticipated last February (GEAB N°62. It’s positive news but, for the coming six-month periods, this “second Renaissance” of the European project (3) will really be the only good news at world level.

    All the other components of the global situation are in fact pointed in a negative, even catastrophic, direction. Here again, the main media are starting to echo a long-standing situation anticipated by our team for summer 2012. Indeed, in one form or another, more often on the inside pages than in big headlines (monopolized for months by Greece and the Euro (4)), one now finds the following 13 topics:

    1. Global recession (no engine of growth anywhere / end of the myth of the “US recovery”) (5)
    2. Growing insolvency of the Western banking and financial system and henceforth partially recognized as such
    3. Growing frailty of key financial assets such as sovereign debts, real estate and CDSs underpinning the world’s major banks’ balance sheets
    4. Fall off in international trade (6)
    5. Geopolitical tensions (in particular in the Middle East) approaching the point of a regional explosion
    6. Lasting global geopolitical blockage at the UN
    7. Rapid collapse of the whole of the Western asset-backed retirement system (7)
    8. Growing political divisions within the world’s “monolithic” powers (USA, China, Russia)
    9. Lack of “miracle” solutions as in 2008 /2009, because of the growing impotence of many of the major Western central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ) and States’ indebtedness
    10. Credibility in freefall for all countries having to assume the double load of public and excessive private debt (8)
    11. Inability to control/slow down the advance of mass and long-term unemployment
    12. Failure of monetarist and financial stimulus policies such as “pure” austerity policies
    13. Quasi-systematic ineffectiveness henceforth of the alternative or recent international closed groups, G20, G8, Rio+20, WTO,… on all the key topics of what is no longer in fact a world agenda absent any consensus: economy, finances, environment, conflict resolution, fight against poverty…



    Major indices (stock exchanges and oil) in May 2012 - Source: MarketWatch, 06/2012
    According to LEAP/E2020, and in accordance with its already timeworn anticipations, just like Franck Biancheri from 2010 in his book “The World Crisis: The path to the World Afterwards”, this second half of 2012 well really mark a major inflection point of the global systemic crisis and the answers to it.

    In fact, it will be characterized by an event which is very simple to understand: if, today, Euroland is able to address this period in a promising fashion (9), it’s because, these last few years, it has gone through a crisis of an intensity and depth unequalled since the beginning of the European construction project after the Second World War (10). From the end of this summer all the other world powers, led by the United States (11), will have to face an identical process. It’s at this cost, and only at this cost, that they will subsequently, in a few years, be able to start a slow recovery towards the light.

    But today, after having tried all means of delaying the payment on the due date, the hour of payment arrives. And, as with everything, the ability to put off the inevitable comes at a high price, namely the bigger shock of adjusting to the new reality. In fact, it’s a question of the endgame for the world of before the crisis. The seven blasts of the trumpets of Jericho marking the September October 2012 period will cause the “Dollar Wall’s” last sections and the walls which have protected the world as we know it since 1945 to collapse.

    The shock of the autumn 2008 will seem like a small summer storm compared to what will affect planet in several months.

    In fact LEAP/E2020 has never seen the chronological convergence of such a series of explosive and so fundamental factors (economy, finances, geopolitical…) since 2006, the start of its work on the global systemic crisis. Logically, in our modest attempt to regularly publish a “crisis weather forecast”, we must therefore give our readers a “Red Alert” because the upcoming events which are readying themselves to shake the world system next September/ October belong to this category.



    American household % change in median and mean net worth (2001-2010) (dark green: median / light green: mean) - Sources: US Federal Reserve, 06/2012
    In this GEAB issue, we expand on our anticipations for seven key factors in this September-October 2012 shock, the seven blasts of the trumpets of Jericho (12) marking the end of the world before the crisis. Four Middle Eastern geopolitical factors and three economic and financial elements are involved at the heart of the coming shock:

    1. Iran/Israel/USA: The war too far will really happen
    2. The Assyrian bomb: the Israeli-American-Iranian match put to the Syria-Iraq powder keg
    3. The AfPak chaos: the US army and NATO, hostages in an exit from an increasingly difficult conflict
    4. The Arab Autumn: the Gulf countries swept away in the turmoil.
    5. United States: ? Taxargeddon ? will begin from summer 2012 – The US economy in free-fall by autumn
    6. Major bank insolvencies due in September-October 2012: The City-Wall Street version of Bankia
    7. The untenable irresponsibility of QE in summer 2012 - the US, British and Japanese central banks out of the game

    In addition, we expand on our clear recommendations on how to minimize the impact of the shock in preparation on one’s own situation whether an individual or a business or public service decision maker. We also offer this month’s GlobalEurope Dollar Index.

    Finally, LEAP/E2020 announces the resumption of its political anticipation training next autumn, which will henceforth take place on line to satisfy the demand coming out of the four corners of the planet. If GEAB is a “fish”, an end product of anticipation, with this training, we hope to teach a growing number of people to “fish” for direction in the troubled waters of the future. Because hopes that the endgame of the world before the crisis leads to the building of a better world after the crisis, it seems essential to us to build the anticipation capacities of as many people as possible. In fact, it’s this absence of anticipation which for the most part has caused the mistakes at the current crisis’ origin.

    This training will be organized in partnership with the non-profit Spanish foundation FEFAP (Fondacion por Educacion E Formacion has Politica Anticipation) recently set up thanks to a donation from Franck Biancheri (13).


    ---------
    Notes:

    (1) Henceforth discussions, salutary especially if they are frank and wide-ranging, will be concerned with the long-term average, political integration and the new institutions needed. By the end of summer, the evidence that the Euroland dimension is core will prevail and make it possible to circumvent the difficulty of the 27 country institutions which are in such a state of decay and British omnipresence today that it’s not possible at this stage to entrust them with the important task of setting up Euroland governance. The Holland-Merkel problem sticks much closer to this reality than a “common institutions” divergence or “intergovernmental approach”. The Brussels institutions also belong to the world before the crisis and are unfit to found the Europe of after the crisis. Sources: Deutsche Welle, 11/06/2012; Spiegel, 06/05/2012; El Pais, 10/06/2012; La Tribune, 10/06/2012

    (2) Who, in exchange, will make the country’s difficult adjustment after 30 lost years within the EU more tolerable, lost because they were wasted without any modernization of the Greek State at stake. Source: YahooNews, 18/06/2012

    (3) MarketWatch 14/06/2012 is even predicting Switzerland’s inevitable integration in Euroland… as LEAP already did some time ago.

    (4) As diversion strategies oblige!

    (5) Sources: Bloomberg, 15/06/2012; Albawaba, 12/06/2012; ChinaDaily, 05/06/2012; CNNMoney, 11/05/2012; Telegraph, 04/06/2012; MarketWatch, 05/04/2012

    (6) Source: Irish Times, 12/04/2012; CNBC, 08/06/2012

    (7) Sources: WashingtonPost, 11/06/2012; Telegraph, 11/06/2012; TheAustralian, 15/06/2012; Spiegel, 06/05/2012; ChinaDaily, 15/06/2012

    (8) In two years, there has been disarray in the world diplomatic diary.

    (9) On this subject, LEAP/E2020 anticipates questions of defence being introduced into the middle of the political integration debate. Just like the Euro was created at the centre of a complex agreement involving strong French support for German unification against the pooling of the Deutsche Mark, the political integration which emerges will involve the “German signature” pooling in return for a form of pooling (at least for the Euroland core) of the French nuclear deterrent. The French leaders will thus discover three things: that the security/defence issue is a major concern for their Euroland partners contrary to appearances (in particular due to the fact of the rapid loss of credibility in US protection), that there is no reason that a complex and difficult debate should be sparked off by this new phase of integration in Germany alone (France also will have to get involved), and finally that public opinion is not against this kind of very practical approach unlike incomprehensible legal texts (as in 2005). As regards defence, we are already seeing a major change: France is turning away from any significant partnership with the United Kingdom without proclaiming it high and low to focus on co-operation with Germany and the continent’s countries. The fact that the United Kingdom always promises and never keeps to its commitments as regards European defence (latest: the joint aircraft carrier development is called into question by the British decision not to adapt its aircraft carrier to accommodate French aircraft) has been finally analyzed for what it was, namely an uninterrupted attempt to prevent the emergence of a European defence. And the drastic reductions in British defence capabilities for budgetary reasons, have made it an increasingly less attractive partner. Sources: Monde Diplomatique, 15/05/2012; Telegraph, 06/06/2012; Le Point, 14/06/2012

    (10) A shock amplified in collective European and world psychology by the Europeans’ incapacity during this period to prevent itself from being used by City and Wall Street media wise, in order, on one hand, to, divert attention from their own difficulties and, on the other, to try and “break” this emerging Euroland which was jostling the post-1945 established order.

    (11) A country which has seen its inhabitants’ wealth reduced by 40% between 2007 and 2010 according to a recent US Federal Reserve study. A reminder that, in 2006, when we explained in the first GEAB issues that this crisis was going to cause a 50% fall in American households’ wealth, most “experts” considered this anticipation totally absurd. And that’s for 2010. As we have said, US households can expect a further fall of at least 20%. This reminder aims at stressing that one of the greatest difficulties of anticipation work is the immense inertia of opinion and the absence of experts’ imagination. Each reinforces the other to give the impression that no major negative change is just round the corner. Source: WashingtonPost, 11/06/2012; US Federal Reserve, 06/2012

    (12) For more information on the story of the trumpets of Jericho: see Wikipedia

    (13) It must be one of the very rare players to have brought money into the Spanish banking system these last few weeks. Proof of a convergence between analysis and action.


    Mardi 19 Juin 2012
    LEAP/E2020
  • 訪客
  • 未來的貨幣,將是一個國際金融世家控制下的統一貨幣!歐債危機只是拉開了世界統一貨幣的大幕,好戲還在後面。
    聯合國希望開始向全球直接徵稅,可能的稅種包括:二氧化碳排放稅$25美元/每噸,預計徵收2500億美元;外匯交易稅(美元、歐元、英鎊、日元等)0.005%每筆,預計徵收400億美元;金融交易稅,預計徵收700億美元。
    世界銀行將演變為全球的稅務局,幫助聯合國落實稅收。IMF變為全球央行,最後是統一全球貨幣。
    2012/07/12 宋鴻兵
  • 訪客
  • List of assets owned by General Electric

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    Media

    NBCUniversal (49% ownership, remaining owned by Comcast)
    NBC - National Broadcasting Company
    NBC Entertainment
    NBC News
    TheGrio.com
    Peacock Productions
    NBC Sports
    NBC Studios
    NBCUniversal Sports & Olympics
    NBCUniversal Television Group
    Universal Television
    NBCUniversal Television Distribution
    NBCUniversal International Television
    NBC Owned Television Stations
    WNBC 4 - New York
    KNBC 4 - Los Angeles
    WMAQ 5 - Chicago
    WCAU 10 - Philadelphia
    KNTV 11 - San Jose/San Francisco
    KXAS 5 - Dallas/Fort Worth²
    WRC 4 - Washington
    WTVJ 6 - Miami
    KNSD 39 (cable 7) - San Diego²
    WVIT 30 - Hartford
    NBC Nonstop
    LXTV
    EMKA, Ltd.
    NBC Universal Digital Media
    NBC Universal Cable
    A&E Television Networks (co-owned with The Hearst Corporation and Disney/ABC):
    A&E
    The Biography Channel
    Crime & Investigation Network
    The History Channel
    The History Channel en Español
    History Channel International
    Lifetime
    Military History Channel
    Bravo
    Chiller (horror-themed cable channel, launched March 1, 2007) [1]
    CNBC
    CNBC World
    MSNBC (co-owned with Microsoft)
    mun2
    SyFy
    ShopNBC
    Sleuth
    USA Network
    Universal HD
    Weather Channel Companies - with private equity firms Bain Capital and the Blackstone Group
    The Weather Channel
    Weatherscan
    The Weather Channel Interactive
    weather.com
    The Weather Channel Mobile
    The Weather Channel Desktop
    Weather Services International
    Comcast Sports Group



    NBCUniversal Global Networks
    NBCUniversal Global Networks
    LAPTV (Latin America) - co-owned with Paramount Pictures (Viacom), MGM and 20th Century Fox (News Corporation);
    Telecine (Brazil) - co-owned with Globosat Canais, Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks, MGM and 20th Century Fox;
    Universal Channel Latin America (except Brazil)
    Universal Channel Brazil (co-owned with Globosat Canais);
    Sci Fi Channel (Latin America)
    NBCUniversal Global Networks España.
    Telemundo
    KVEA/KWHY - Los Angeles
    WNJU - New York
    WSCV - Miami
    KTMD - Houston
    WSNS - Chicago
    KXTX - Dallas/Fort Worth
    KVDA - San Antonio
    KSTS - San Jose/San Francisco
    KTAZ - Phoenix
    KBLR - Las Vegas
    KNSO - Fresno
    KDEN - Longmont, Colorado
    WNEU - Boston/Merrimack
    KHRR - Tucson
    WKAQ - Puerto Rico (independent Spanish station)
    Universal Studios (co-owned with Comcast)
    Universal Pictures
    Focus Features
    Rogue
    Working Title Films
    Universal Studios Licensing
    Universal Animation Studios
    Universal Interactive
    Universal Pictures International
    Universal Studios Home Entertainment
    Universal Home Entertainment Productions
    United International Pictures (co-owned with Paramount Pictures/Viacom);
    Universal Operations Group
    Universal Production Studios
    Universal Parks & Resorts

  • 訪客
  • 馬雅文明最令人讚嘆者,是發明精確之曆法,宗教曆稱為「左經」(Tzolkin),一年分十三個月,每月為二十日,一年共二六日,其記載方法,「日」用二十個不同之形象,每一個代表一個神,數目字在前,日在後。太陽曆稱為「阿阿不」,(Haabes)一年分十八個月零五天,每個月共二十日,一年共三百六十五日。日稱為「金」,月稱為「烏衣那」,(Uina)年稱為「敦」(Tun)二十年稱為「卡敦」,(Katun)二十個「卡敦」稱為「巴敦」(Batun),二十個「巴敦」稱為「匹敦」(Pitun)。太陽曆過完十八個月剩下之五天,馬雅人認為是倒霉之日,為避霉運而停止一切活動。太陽曆每五十二年為一輪回,馬雅人認為是大事,每一輪回終止,次一太陽曆要加十三天。馬雅人之太陽曆精確度每37440年誤差一天,超過中華文明之夏曆和現代西洋羅馬曆﹙3323年誤差一天﹚十倍。馬雅人精於星象,令人嘆服。此外,馬雅人有金星(Venus)之運轉曆,金星共584日,實際誤差僅0.000394,日蝕和月蝕也能精確算出。


    古馬雅文化在遠古時代就精通天體運行。
    他算準了每次的日蝕、月蝕、至地球自轉及公轉速度及時間,至今日仍能通用。文獻之一的托蘭斯汀古書,明載著日蝕、金星會合週期等。


    為了計算,馬雅人以十個手指和十個腳趾,發明二十進位算學,並有「零」之觀念。數目字以象形文字表示,「○」以貝?形狀為代表,一點代表「一」,三點代表「三」,一橫線代表「五」,二橫線代表「十」,三橫線上面加三個點是「十八」。馬雅人用二十進位法,在廢墟石碑上記載,每二十年立一個石碑紀念。


    馬雅人為美洲之印第安人中,唯一發明象形文字者,以自然界造形,加上會意(馬雅語為Sib)及形聲(馬雅語為Nooh),創造像中文一樣,以單音發音之象形文字。
  • 訪客
  • 古文明的先進天文學:天狼星伴星


    大犬座中的天狼星(Sirius),亮度有-1.6等,為全年夜空中最亮的恆星,它其實為一顆雙星,因為在其附近有一顆光等8.7等(肉眼看不到)的伴星,這顆伴星的直徑僅相當於地球,但其密度極高、質量極大,約有鐵的二萬倍重,此類特殊的恆星今天稱其為白矮星。德國天文學家白賽爾在1834年就察覺到天狼星有不規則運動的跡象,到了1844年時便提出一種理論,認為天狼星旁應有一肉眼看不到的伴星,造成天狼星呈現搖擺波浪狀的運動,是真?是假?直到1862年,美國著名的望遠鏡製造家克拉克,在磨製完成當時最大的18吋折光鏡後,當用天狼星來測試其光學效果時,果然發現這顆期待已久的伴星,這顆體積極小的恆星以五十年為周期繞著最亮的天狼星運行,這在當時天文學上是一項重大的發現,然而在這之前,真的沒有人見過這顆質量極重的白矮星嗎?


    在非洲的馬利共和國內,住有一群都哥族,一位英國的考古學家鄧波,發現了該族中有一極其詭異驚人,難以置信的神話傳說,敘述在夜空中,有一極重要的星辰叫作「波.得羅」,它可說是宇宙中「體積極小」的星辰,肉眼也不能看見,它以「五十年為周期」,圍繞看夜空中「最亮的母星」運行。波.得羅這顆星為由「白色重金屬」所構成,此種重金屬在地球上亦不可見…..。鄧波把這個神話中的「母星」當做是大犬座的天狼星,它是一顆雙星,在其周圍有顆第一次被發現的白矮星,以五十年為周期圍繞著天狼星運行,但天狼星旁的這顆白矮星,是在十九世紀後才由高倍率放大的天文望遠鏡所發現的,然而為什麼會出現在都哥族「古老的神話中」?尤其是正確無誤的「以五十年為周期」這決不是亂掰出來的,但望遠鏡是在1608年才發明出來,還要大口徑的望遠鏡才能看得到,奇怪的是古老的傳說如何洞悉這個事實。
  • 訪客
  • 12000 x 12 = 144000
    144000 x 13 x 5 = 9360000
    9360000天 ≒ 25626.83回歸年 ≒ 歲差運動的週期
  • 迷真認妄:《美聯儲的秘密》和《貨幣戰爭》都是美國中情局的情報戰小說
  •   羅斯柴爾德家族(Rothschild)的可動用資產約100億美元,是猶太共濟會成員之一。
      洛克斐勒集團(Rockefeller)的可動用資產約2000億美元,是英國共濟會的成員之一。

      今年5月,羅斯柴爾德和洛克斐勒才宣佈金融戰略合作,主要是遵守去年10月24日羅馬教廷和平元老發布的通牒令。國際各家族積極在合作,全面要求富豪捐款和提高稅金來減少貧富差距,否則和平元老院要動刀。一旦動刀,倒楣銀行會中槍,一次讓數個大銀行破產來進行重組,不論是甚麼金融家族通通破產,道瓊指數會在一個月內崩跌10000點,半個世界會經濟破產。須知,國際金融家族再富裕,永遠是共濟會資產的零頭,因為金錢是人為生產出來的債券,而金融家只是寄生蟲,對世界沒有任何控制權。羅馬元老院的總資產無法計算,可動用資產維持在50兆至100兆美元。

      [2011年10月28日]國際共運得到了秘密宗教的認可,全球要大洗牌了!

      英國皇家共濟會的總資產約6000兆美元,但全是自己生產的假鑽石和珠寶,沒有交易是一毛不值,真正可動用資產估計為5兆美元。1988年至1992年發起「紅色之春暨天鵝絨革命」,幹掉18個國際共產集團,400多個共產組織全面瓦解,據信是一次動用預備金4兆美元才完成任務,視同全面投入,末階段是猶太共濟會介入去狙擊英磅才和解。

      《貨幣戰爭》是美國中情局的情報戰小說,前身是Ezra Pound著作《美聯儲的秘密》(Secrets of Federal Reserve)。由於Ezra Pound全力支持墨索里尼,變成狂熱反猶太主義,日日在梵蒂岡電台大罵美國,天天批判瑞士共產國際的羅斯福總統,並鼓吹屠殺猶太人。1945年4月,共產黨抓獲墨索里尼並處決,Ezra Pound被送回美國審判,但羅斯福總統已往生,而主導本次審判是大英帝國勢力,故意判定精神分裂無罪,然後在圖書館負責翻譯中國《四書五經》並編著英國情報給予的錯誤資料用來進行情報戰,於1947年美國中情局成立,《美聯儲的秘密》讓他的好友Eustace Mullins掛名出版。本書寫的十分傳神,由軍情六處和中情局主導國際行銷,所以在文明落後地區十分暢銷,後人持續繼承並加料,反正腦殘紅衛兵和紅小兵喜歡,其實是被美國中情局腦控成為槍手都還在暗自竊喜的文盲,永遠是鷸蚌相爭同族相殘的低能族群。
  • 訪客
  • 韓國學者說 : 天安艦是被韓國自己的水雷所炸沉
    俄羅斯之聲網站9月4日報道稱 :
    韓國地震研究所主任金鎖九(音譯)和以色列地質研究所知名專家葉菲穆.基特爾曼對媒體宣布,早前宣布的“天安號”遭到魚雷攻擊沉沒的情況並沒有考慮到爆炸的烈度。根據這兩位學者對爆炸所進行的精確計算表明,爆炸並不是由魚雷造成的,而是爆炸力更小些的水雷。這種水雷是韓國在上世紀70年代為了防範朝鮮艦船而在自己水域布設的。
    一年以前,韓國延世大學地球系統學系主任洪泰京也發表了類似的聲明。
  • 訪客
  • Hyperinflation is Virtually Assured
    – John Williams 2012/9/12
    The Federal Reserve is talking about “unlimited QE,” or money printing, to boost employment. Economist John Williams says, “That’s absolutely nonsense. The Fed is just propping up the banks.” Williams says, “You’re likely going to see a dollar sell-off . . . That should evolve into hyperinflation.” Williams, “Doesn’t see the current system holding together without hyperinflation beyond 2014.” He contends the real annual deficit is “$5 trillion per year” and says, “That’s beyond containment.”
    Williams predicts, “Hyperinflation is virtually assured because the Fed doesn’t have any options left.” Williams says people should get prepared because we are facing a “man-made disaster.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Williams of Shadowstats.com.
  • Visitor
  • Hyperinflation
    Coming soon
    What can we do?